Covid-19 – end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?

Having weighed all the evidence, our advice to clients is not to second-guess the pandemic until there is much clearer evidence of a turn in infections. There is no good way of forecasting this but we have set out what to monitor below. It is unlikely that without the epidemic waning, fiscal and monetary policy measures can do more than stabilise financial markets and prevent debt collapse. At the moment, we would stay long safe-haven assets. If we were to put money to work in higher-risk instruments, such as equities, it would not be more than 20% of our cash.

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