Independent Strategy

Donald’s dying dollar

Novembers election of Donald Trump sparked the dollars last hurrah. Were now entering a weak dollar cycle. This is a function of persistently benign inflationary pressures and tepid growth. The onset of Fed balance sheet normalisation is a further complication. That is not currently in the dollars price. Nor are the effects of diverging economic cycles. The Eurozone is entering what should be the fastest part of its upswing. The US is late cycle. We remain short the US dollar versus the euro. Eurozone equities should also continue to outperform.

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