Independent Strategy

The energy revolution – winners and losers

The odds are that global energy prices will not rise significantly over the next decade or so. The international agencies are over-estimating the future growth in energy demand. Economic growth in the so-called BRICs is likely to be slower than forecast too. Moreover, countries like China will become much more efficient in their use of energy. At the same time, the global supply of energy is likely to increase more than expected as the unconventional revolution continues, providing a window for renewable energy sources to reach cost parity. US energy companies with the largest unconventional reserves will prosper, especially the major rig producers and US refinery builders. Investors should favour US financial assets and the dollar over Europe and the euro.

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