Flagship Putinkind

The Russian war in Ukraine will last years, not months. Eventually, Putin will bite the dust. But this could just as well open the door to Russian instability as to a new round of sensible reformers. In a sense, this is also true of China. Ruble stability is an illusion reflecting only one side of the economic equation – the current account surplus and capital controls. It does not tell you that sanctions are not working, which they are – on domestic demand. But without energy, sanctions are ineffective at depriving the regime of the means of waging war. We view Russia as uninvestable.

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