Independent Strategy

Greece – disaster pending

The probability of a timely deal between the Greeks and the EU is now down to 35% (from 50%) and the probability of a Greek exit from the Euro is up to 60%. Contagion to the rest of the Eurozone will be contained. The ECB has the excuse and the tool ready to buy peripheral bonds. Pressure will be most acutely felt in the currency and we are positioned for that, short euro versus long US dollar principally.

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