Independent Strategy

Greece – the last ditch?

A Greek deal is now more likely (60% probability from 40%). It is likely to be based on poor economics containing measures that are reform-lite and demand deflationary. This just removes a political headache rather than solving an economic one. So Greece will miss its budget targets again and need to ask for yet more money. We remain short euro versus the US dollar. However, it will take Greece off the radar screen for a while. That is leading to a bounce in equities and peripheral bonds.

To read the full report - Login or Subscribe


In the Media