Independent Strategy

Greece – a Sarajevo moment?

Rational players would avoid a showdown on Greece. But the new Syriza government has not embarked on such a course. They are walling, rather than painting, themselves into a corner with their populist diatribe and outright rejection of the Troika programme. This does not go down well in European capitals, especially Berlin. And that appears to rule out any agreement to the terms set by the EU. If this week’s meetings (Eurogroup Finance Ministers on Wednesday and the EU Summit on Thursday/Friday) go badly, it could well be a Sarajevo moment where irreversible things start to happen, pushing Greece towards the fabled ‘Grexit’. We are staying short euro versus the US dollar as our primary investment position.

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