Independent Strategy

The greenback and EM FX

We have argued that the greenback’s multi-year bull-run might last a couple more months. But it is over or ending. The result will be a major turning point in the euro starting mid-year. It is likely to reach EUR/USD 1.14-1.20 within a year after that. It is also time to look for some emerging market positions where yields are high, fundamentals not too awful and a declining US dollar might boost the price of their exports. Brazil, Russia and Argentina stand out.

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