Independent Strategy

Killing me softly

The UK has had a bad pandemic. The economy shrank more than other G7 members and the country has only just recovered the GDP lost during the downturn. In per capita terms the story is even worse. The UK’s problem is not that it suffered from Covid disproportionately, it is that it also adjusting to that other big economic hit — Brexit. Differentiating between the impacts of such significant shocks is hard. But it’s becoming increasingly clear, as the pandemic wanes, that the UK’s relative position versus its peers has deteriorated significantly. We would be short sterling against the US dollar and short 10-year Gilts.

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