Independent Strategy

Kinder egg

This report discusses the four key variables that lead us to be: 1.Long agricultural commodities, gold and strategic metals; 2.Long USD, AUD and SGD; 3.Short 10-year Bunds, BTPs and US Treasuries; 4.Short equities. The four key variables are: prolonged war of attrition with Russia, with regime change as the goal; China’s Covid policy causing global supply-side disruption; the nature of embedded inflation and central banks’ targeting of it; and the size of government and redistributive income policy away from profits.

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