Independent Strategy

Middle East – small attack, big message

Israel’s minimalist, pinpoint, direct attack on Iranian military assets carries a big message to the Mullahs about the technology gap that separates the war capacity of both countries. It is a big enough to message to give the Mullah’s pause for thought and to stabilize escalation at the higher level that we have reached. The higher level of escalation is framed by Israel’s shift in policy to abolish the veil of deniability that proxies gave the Tehran regime. Ultimately further escalation is inevitable as Israel will never accept a nuclear armed Iran.

The markets will heave a sigh of relief, mistaking stabilization of escalation for de-escalation.

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