National policy and the shape of pandemic curves

If all country pandemics were the same then we’d have a good understanding as to how this current global crisis will resolve. The start-to-peak ratio of Covid-19 infections for all countries would be 40-50 days. The news for many countries would get much worse before it gets better. But ultimately, they would all peak and survive. There would be light at the end of the tunnel. This is one hell of a leap of faith.

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