Independent Strategy

Oil to boil

We are adding long oil to the portfolio again. This report explains why. Russia will disrupt the oil market rather than sell below caps. Putin sees this as one of his key escalation weapons. The global tanker constraint will stop Russia shipping meaningfully more oil to Dark Markets and EMs. India and China don’t want more Russian oil dependence. So Russia will shut down capacity. This will shrink global supply but not demand. And do not expect help from OPEC.

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