The SPD’s new leadership choice might appear radical but it’s unlikely to mark the start of a coalition collapse. What…
Reports - Full Archive
The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
Fixed income portfolios have enjoyed a bumper year in 2019. Yields are at rock bottom. That makes achieving even moderate…
The victory of pro-democracy candidates in the weekend’s Hong Kong (HK) district council elections creates another problem for US/China trade…
Germany’s export-driven success leaves it highly vulnerable to changes in global trade flows. It’s also facing broad structural pressures. The…
While some might view the latest ‘postponement’ of Brexit as another example of can kicking in reality, it materially changes…
This report discusses what strategy would look like if the US dollar were suddenly to lose its safe-haven status. This…
The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…
The trade negotiations in Washington are unlikely to shift the needle of global confidence or impending recession significantly. The Washington…
If debt were productive it would produce more than itself. This is what is needed to pay for it in…
The ongoing slump in German industrial activity isn’t likely to end soon. Many of the problems are structural and result…
Australian policymakers are on the back foot. Domestic demand is caught between falling house prices and rising unemployment. Solid trade…
The old Hong Kong we knew will not return. The political social and economic model is dead. This makes Hong…
The ECB’s latest stimulus package seeks to address several problems and does so quite neatly. Banks win, thanks to tiering…
Despite dodging one hard Brexit bullet, the underlying picture for the UK hasn’t changed much. A further extension of Article…
Nothing in recent events has mellowed our views on the risks facing the global economy. The China/US trade conflict is…
Another ratchet up in the US-China trade war and the intensification of the Hong Kong protests mean that we would…
There have been a number of recent developments that impact our asset allocation. First, we are adding more euro shorts…
The state also was the key player in all the Asian emerging markets that graduated from middle-income to rich economy…
G20 bout resulted in no knock-out! We got a trade war truce, but we didn’t get any shift in the…
The world is closer to a recession than markets anticipate. This report sets out the many interlinked causal factors that…
The current boom in investment spending among the tech giants is now close to the entire Federal budget for education,…
The most dangerous fights are the ones where both contenders have total confidence they will win. The US-China trade spat…
Expectations for easier US monetary policy are taking the wind from the dollar’s sails. These market changes reflect the worsening…
The breakdown of US/China trade talks and President Trump’s decision to add a further layer of tariff s on Chinese…
The populists might get 30% of the vote in the European Parliamentary elections, but that will translate into just above…
The reality is that the US woke up too late to the risk of China usurping them as the key…
By a narrow probability, it is likely that the US-China trade talks can be saved. But only just. The complacency…
Pedro Sanchez’ gamble to call a snap election paid off. His PSOE has become the biggest party in parliament, its share of the vote at least 10% points ahead of any other. Yet one is left with a lingering sense of fragmentation, especially on the right.
We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals.
Based on how far the US term premium has fallen, to see any further meaningful decline in bond yields we’d need another downside macro shock.
The Australian economy has had a great run, avoiding recession for almost three decades. Most macro indicators are in reasonable shape. But there are three risks looming. First, high levels of household debt and heavy exposure to residential housing put domestic demand under the spotlight.
The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession indicator that always enlivens markets. While statistically the curve is an excellent forecaster of downturns, there is much to suggest things might be a little different this time.
People are always keen to write off China. Its authoritarian regime has built up malinvestments and debt beyond that of any other emerging economy, both in nominal terms and as a share of GDP. Even its GDP is often deemed to be over-inflated. But we are not on the cusp of a collapse. For a start, China’s financial system still has relatively closed circuitry, with the money being owed mostly by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to state-owned banks, meaning relatively modest connectivity to the wider world.
Fears of a new cold war with Russia have not been fully realised, even if relations remain strained. Europe is…
More than 12 years after the start of the global financial crisis (GFC) central banks do not feel able to…
Faltering growth and undershooting inflation expose the contradictions of the ECB’s current policy approach. Despite Draghi’s insistence, they remain well…
Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has turned into a more prolonged slowdown, certainly in Europe and Asia.
There is an assumption that demography is a slow-burn theme that can be filed away for the long term. But working age populations are already shrinking in many of the major economies.
The collapse of Spain’s centre-left government has sounded the alarm bells. The country will now go to the polls in April, its fourth election in eight years. However, this does not mean populist parties are about to take over.
Despite positive noises on wages from both the Fed and the ECB there is little sign we’re returning to the…
We’ve expected Sweden’s political and monetary policy shifts to give the Swedish krona (SEK) a boost. And it did for…
The Fed has shifted policy on the path for the Fed Funds rate and the normalisation of its balance sheet.…
US equities have hugely outperformed their international peers over the long haul and other US financial assets in the short…
Chinese data suggests the trade war is biting. This is focusing minds in Beijing, meaning some kind of deal between…
There have been various points of blame for weak auto sales. The most under-appreciated input has been technological innovation, as…
America’s trade conflict with China reflects two things. First, the angst of a declining US power. Second, the ego-centric conflict…
Europe is suffering from a noxious combination of slowing growth and rising political risk. It also has a central bank…
Unlike most geopolitical phenomena, populism is not a high-impact low-probability event. It is hard to run your life (or portfolio)…
The ECB has a fine line to tread, since its forward guidance is out of kilter with the slowdown in…
The markets have been given two adrenalin shots to boost the Santa Claus rally: Fed Chairman Powell’s statement that the…
