Independent Strategy

Reports - Full Archive

The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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Global

15th March, 2022 » New world (dis)order

What will the post-conflict world look like? What lies beyond the immediate “Warcession” discussed yesterday? This short piece describes the…

Europe

14th March, 2022 » Warcession

The EU authorities are in denial. This is bad for equities, north-south EU bond spreads, high-yield bonds and the euro.…

Global

7th March, 2022 » The war logic

Equity markets are likely to continue to go lower. The US dollar will be stronger. Commodity prices will stay high.…

China

3rd March, 2022 » Behind the arras

China’s “twin sessions” of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference…

Russia

23rd February, 2022 » Putin’s primer

Our Russia hedges (long energy, agricultural commodities and gold, short bonds, equities (EU focused etc.) have worked well. A market…

Russia

20th February, 2022 » From Russia with War

Mostly and most investors view geopolitical events as of little relevance to economies and markets. In the case (60% probability)…

Global

14th February, 2022 » More agro

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) continues to support…

Global

14th February, 2022 » Notes to myself

Four things in case I forget… Russia, the structural demand shift to manufactured goods, synchronised monetary tightening and Covid. All…

UK

28th January, 2022 » Killing me softly

The UK has had a bad pandemic. The economy shrank more than other G7 members and the country has only…

Global

27th January, 2022 » Bottom’s up

More than 90% of the world’s transoceanic data traffic travels in cables at the bottom of the sea. Satellites carry…

Italy

5th January, 2022 » Mario stepping up?

The Italian presidential election is looming and the current PM, Mario Draghi, is the leading contender. While his appointment to…

Global

13th December, 2021 » Warm Santa images

Christmas mines images from childhood. There is one in my mind that is more like Chirico than Santa. The colours…

US

7th December, 2021 » Burnt toast

The unequal distribution of US household assets is a reality. The pandemic was never going to change that. But measures…

US

23rd November, 2021 » The Fed nominations

President Biden’s decision to re-nominate Jerome Powell as Chair of the Fed governing board removes some uncertainty but doesn’t alter…

Global

11th October, 2021 » The door to where?

Supply-chain disruptions have many “local” causes but they generate global crises. Many are durable. They seem to have come together…

China

4th October, 2021 » Beyond Evergrande

Evergrande might be insolvent, but its liabilities look digestible for the many mouths of the Chinese state. Clamping down on…

Global

29th September, 2021 » The coming togetherness

Current stress points in the global economy, like supply-side disruptions, have idiosyncratic causes but all point in one direction: the…

In the Media