We are shifting currency investments because of the collapse in the oil price which, coming on top of Covid-19, is…
Reports - Full Archive
The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
Markets are likely to remain volatile as the lag between actual COVID-19 infections and the reporting of cases continues to…
We have cut our long US dollar position versus the euro, taking us neutral. We expect oversold equity markets to…
Environmentalism and sustainability are unstoppable forces. But some investors remain slow to embrace the change. Thus far most effort has…
Political and economic risks are rising in Germany and, with them, pressure on the CDU. This week’s fateful cooperation with…
The likely economic and financial market damage caused by the Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is underestimated. We remain short Thai baht and…
The Wuhan Coronavirus has the potential to damage asset prices like SARS did. We would need greater evidence that it…
Trump’s ‘Phase 1’ trade deal isn’t the concrete base to build the 2020s on. It’s a short-term deal that fits…
There is much to worry about in India. The slowdown in growth might have coincided with global weakness, but the…
The outcome of Saturday’s Taiwanese presidential election was no great surprise. It reinforces the problems China and President Xi face…
Markets remain convinced that macro risks are not worth worrying about. Nor market risk, such as the growing exposure of…
Don’t look now, but actually Taiwan is doing very well out the US-China trade war. Despite that, all is not…
The removal of uncertainties is always good for a short-term market boost. But it’s often better to travel than arrive.…
Thailand’s currency is completely out of line with fundamentals. A large current account surplus has sustained it but that is…
The SPD’s new leadership choice might appear radical but it’s unlikely to mark the start of a coalition collapse. What…
Fixed income portfolios have enjoyed a bumper year in 2019. Yields are at rock bottom. That makes achieving even moderate…
The victory of pro-democracy candidates in the weekend’s Hong Kong (HK) district council elections creates another problem for US/China trade…
Germany’s export-driven success leaves it highly vulnerable to changes in global trade flows. It’s also facing broad structural pressures. The…
While some might view the latest ‘postponement’ of Brexit as another example of can kicking in reality, it materially changes…
This report discusses what strategy would look like if the US dollar were suddenly to lose its safe-haven status. This…
The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…
The trade negotiations in Washington are unlikely to shift the needle of global confidence or impending recession significantly. The Washington…
If debt were productive it would produce more than itself. This is what is needed to pay for it in…
The ongoing slump in German industrial activity isn’t likely to end soon. Many of the problems are structural and result…
Australian policymakers are on the back foot. Domestic demand is caught between falling house prices and rising unemployment. Solid trade…
The old Hong Kong we knew will not return. The political social and economic model is dead. This makes Hong…
The ECB’s latest stimulus package seeks to address several problems and does so quite neatly. Banks win, thanks to tiering…
Despite dodging one hard Brexit bullet, the underlying picture for the UK hasn’t changed much. A further extension of Article…
Nothing in recent events has mellowed our views on the risks facing the global economy. The China/US trade conflict is…
Another ratchet up in the US-China trade war and the intensification of the Hong Kong protests mean that we would…
There have been a number of recent developments that impact our asset allocation. First, we are adding more euro shorts…
The state also was the key player in all the Asian emerging markets that graduated from middle-income to rich economy…
G20 bout resulted in no knock-out! We got a trade war truce, but we didn’t get any shift in the…
The world is closer to a recession than markets anticipate. This report sets out the many interlinked causal factors that…
The current boom in investment spending among the tech giants is now close to the entire Federal budget for education,…
The most dangerous fights are the ones where both contenders have total confidence they will win. The US-China trade spat…
Expectations for easier US monetary policy are taking the wind from the dollar’s sails. These market changes reflect the worsening…
The breakdown of US/China trade talks and President Trump’s decision to add a further layer of tariff s on Chinese…
The populists might get 30% of the vote in the European Parliamentary elections, but that will translate into just above…
The reality is that the US woke up too late to the risk of China usurping them as the key…
By a narrow probability, it is likely that the US-China trade talks can be saved. But only just. The complacency…
Pedro Sanchez’ gamble to call a snap election paid off. His PSOE has become the biggest party in parliament, its share of the vote at least 10% points ahead of any other. Yet one is left with a lingering sense of fragmentation, especially on the right.
We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals.
Based on how far the US term premium has fallen, to see any further meaningful decline in bond yields we’d need another downside macro shock.
The Australian economy has had a great run, avoiding recession for almost three decades. Most macro indicators are in reasonable shape. But there are three risks looming. First, high levels of household debt and heavy exposure to residential housing put domestic demand under the spotlight.
The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession indicator that always enlivens markets. While statistically the curve is an excellent forecaster of downturns, there is much to suggest things might be a little different this time.
People are always keen to write off China. Its authoritarian regime has built up malinvestments and debt beyond that of any other emerging economy, both in nominal terms and as a share of GDP. Even its GDP is often deemed to be over-inflated. But we are not on the cusp of a collapse. For a start, China’s financial system still has relatively closed circuitry, with the money being owed mostly by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to state-owned banks, meaning relatively modest connectivity to the wider world.
Fears of a new cold war with Russia have not been fully realised, even if relations remain strained. Europe is…
More than 12 years after the start of the global financial crisis (GFC) central banks do not feel able to…
Faltering growth and undershooting inflation expose the contradictions of the ECB’s current policy approach. Despite Draghi’s insistence, they remain well…
