We are cutting our long US dollar positions. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen from 99 to 97 in a…
Reports - Full Archive
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Opinion about the “next generation EU”, announced by the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 27 May, will…
The downturn in developed markets (DMs) will be savage, with no hint of the ‘V-shaped’ recoveries that were sold as…
The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…
In January, during Chinese New Year, I had started writing about Covid-19 — warning clients of its potential to destroy.…
A Hong Kong (HK) political crisis is brewing beyond Covid. There are two elements. First, Hong Kong is a perfect…
The measures being introduced by the US to control the export of technology to China have four qualities. They can…
The immediate hit from Covid-19 is to society and to economic welfare. A significant longer-term issue will be how this…
We have set out our store a long time ago as regards the post Covid-19 macro setting and asset allocation:…
Even in times of great uncertainty, obvious things still happen. Shuttering much of the global economy crushed demand. That was…
It is striking how little is known, but how widespread is the conviction, that once the pandemic wanes things will…
The rates of Covid-19 new daily infections are starting to roll over. Over Easter globally there were around 70k new…
War horse (30 March 2020) sketched the architecture of a war economy versus a pandemic economy. This note goes further.…
Even before the Covid-19 crisis, about one quarter of US quoted corporations were cash flow negative. This is because they…
Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky…
If all country pandemics were the same then we’d have a good understanding as to how this current global crisis…
The economic shock from Covid-19 is being underestimated. This is natural when the immediate priority is safeguarding human life. This…
Having weighed all the evidence, our advice to clients is not to second-guess the pandemic until there is much clearer…
Covid-19 hits economic activity on a number of levels. This compounds its impact over both the short- and longer-term. It…
We are shifting currency investments because of the collapse in the oil price which, coming on top of Covid-19, is…
Markets are likely to remain volatile as the lag between actual COVID-19 infections and the reporting of cases continues to…
We have cut our long US dollar position versus the euro, taking us neutral. We expect oversold equity markets to…
Environmentalism and sustainability are unstoppable forces. But some investors remain slow to embrace the change. Thus far most effort has…
Political and economic risks are rising in Germany and, with them, pressure on the CDU. This week’s fateful cooperation with…
The likely economic and financial market damage caused by the Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is underestimated. We remain short Thai baht and…
The Wuhan Coronavirus has the potential to damage asset prices like SARS did. We would need greater evidence that it…
Trump’s ‘Phase 1’ trade deal isn’t the concrete base to build the 2020s on. It’s a short-term deal that fits…
There is much to worry about in India. The slowdown in growth might have coincided with global weakness, but the…
The outcome of Saturday’s Taiwanese presidential election was no great surprise. It reinforces the problems China and President Xi face…
Markets remain convinced that macro risks are not worth worrying about. Nor market risk, such as the growing exposure of…
Don’t look now, but actually Taiwan is doing very well out the US-China trade war. Despite that, all is not…
The removal of uncertainties is always good for a short-term market boost. But it’s often better to travel than arrive.…
Thailand’s currency is completely out of line with fundamentals. A large current account surplus has sustained it but that is…
The SPD’s new leadership choice might appear radical but it’s unlikely to mark the start of a coalition collapse. What…
Fixed income portfolios have enjoyed a bumper year in 2019. Yields are at rock bottom. That makes achieving even moderate…
The victory of pro-democracy candidates in the weekend’s Hong Kong (HK) district council elections creates another problem for US/China trade…
Germany’s export-driven success leaves it highly vulnerable to changes in global trade flows. It’s also facing broad structural pressures. The…
While some might view the latest ‘postponement’ of Brexit as another example of can kicking in reality, it materially changes…
This report discusses what strategy would look like if the US dollar were suddenly to lose its safe-haven status. This…
The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…
The trade negotiations in Washington are unlikely to shift the needle of global confidence or impending recession significantly. The Washington…
If debt were productive it would produce more than itself. This is what is needed to pay for it in…
The ongoing slump in German industrial activity isn’t likely to end soon. Many of the problems are structural and result…
Australian policymakers are on the back foot. Domestic demand is caught between falling house prices and rising unemployment. Solid trade…
The old Hong Kong we knew will not return. The political social and economic model is dead. This makes Hong…
The ECB’s latest stimulus package seeks to address several problems and does so quite neatly. Banks win, thanks to tiering…
Despite dodging one hard Brexit bullet, the underlying picture for the UK hasn’t changed much. A further extension of Article…
Nothing in recent events has mellowed our views on the risks facing the global economy. The China/US trade conflict is…
Another ratchet up in the US-China trade war and the intensification of the Hong Kong protests mean that we would…
There have been a number of recent developments that impact our asset allocation. First, we are adding more euro shorts…
