The Fed will go on hiking policy rates through most of 2023. That maintains global financial market headwinds and ultimately…
Reports - Full Archive
The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
The Russians have halted the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Shipment Agreement following the Ukrainian attack on the Russian Black Sea…
The ECB raised its policy rates by 75bp, but made no change to the reinvestment of bonds maturing on its…
Global central banks face risks in trying to shrink their balance sheets. This report looks at this issue in an…
Xi’s next period in office will be very difficult for the leadership: economic growth will be only 2-4% a year,…
The latest USDA world aggregate supply and demand estimates (WASDE) for grain suggest further upside in prices over the winter.…
Germany went off and did its own thing, rather than the EU thing, in its new gas and electricity “Third…
This is to summarise our main strategy positions.
Putin is a man down a hole who, instead of climbing out, just digs deeper. No more off ramps! De…
Our short sterling position is now closed. GBP has hit our USD1.05 target. Now it is about 3c above that…
Giorgia Meloni scored a spectacular electoral victory in Italy. Italians have the first directly elected government in a decade with…
The Japanese authorities have intervened to prop up the yen for the first time since 1998. This intervention may squeeze…
There are two kinds of inflation. One comes from imported inflation. The other happens when inflation spreads to domestic sectors.…
Following a surge in violent crime, Sweden has elected a new rightist government. This shift will impose stricter limits on…
Having removed our longstanding longs in grains in July (Food, the war commodity, 14 July 2022) after the agreement between…
Anything that is bad for Putin’s Russia is good for the rest of us. This is likely to be the…
At yesterday’s monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked all three of its policy rates (including the deposit…
This report is about reconciling the historical predictors of doom with the concept of what could go right. It introduces…
Germany’s SPD-Green-FDP coalition has announced a new support package for beleaguered households and SMEs struggling with surging energy prices. The…
It is unlikely the EU will run out of gas in winter. It means Putin’s stranglehold on EU energy is…
China’s debt problems persist and are increasingly evident in the housing market. While this is unlikely to lead to immediate…
We reduced our longs in grains last month following the agreement between Russia and Ukraine to allow the shipment of…
Against the consensus, we reckon that the EU may well have enough gas supply over the coming winter and beyond…
China is currently de facto blockading Taiwan. Our reading is that the PLA announcement of further manoeuvres in Bohai and…
We no longer recommend being short Italian or other southern Eurozone government bonds.
The Hong Kong dollar peg value against the US dollar is now near its weakest point. This has led some…
Russia plans to cut gas supply to the EU through NordStream 1 (NS1) back to 20% tomorrow. This is sooner…
It is unlikely that the ECB’s new policy tool, TPI (or Transmission Protection Instrument), will change the fate of the…
Italy’s PM Mario Draghi is resigning after losing the support of parties in the governing coalition. This will hit Italian…
Political uncertainty in Italy is back on the agenda. This will weigh on Italian financial assets and the euro.
The announcement of a provisional agreement negotiated between Ukraine and Russia to resume the export of Ukrainian grain blocked by…
Russia has its finger on the trigger aimed at the economic heart of whomever takes measures against it – however…
The ECB, faced with any threat of EU fragmentation, has stated that it has the resources and can create the…
The EU Initiative on Gas Storage, published overnight, misses the point that the issue is not storage but where the…
The next big shock generated by Russia may be gas. It could come from Russia cutting deliveries to the EU…
Political positioning has already begun ahead of Italy’s parliamentary elections next Spring. After a long-running feud within Italy’s Five Star…
President Emmanuel Macron’s party has lost its majority in the French National Assembly. And the result matters.
In a world of rising interest rates and tightening liquidity that is hitting equity and bond markets, commodities remain a…
The Fed raised the Federal Funds interest rate by 75bp to a target rate of 1.5-1.75%. This is a good…
The ad-hoc ECB meeting on widening yield spreads posed many questions.
In the first round of the French parliamentary election President Macron’s coalition and the left’s grouping ended up neck and…
Our forecast is that the world will avoid outright recession (though the EU is prone to ‘Warcession’). There are three…
The world will continue to split along Cold War lines – economically, culturally, technologically and scientifically. Inflation and recession risks…
The Russian war in Ukraine will last years, not months. Eventually, Putin will bite the dust. But this could just…
The world economy is conflicted by variables that will slow growth and headline inflation. But not enough to make bonds…
By any measure, grain and oilseed supplies are going to be justifiably tight for at least another year, particularly if…
There are three spectres of recession stalking the globe. Fed tightening; Zero-Covid disruption; and the war in Ukraine. All three…
The dialogue about Ukraine is set to widen to include the issue of economic resources and how they will be…
We went short the renminbi (RMB) on 12 December 2021. At the time, the RMB traded at around USD6.35. For…
The shifting goals of war will not produce stability, reduced sanctions or Russian withdrawals. They will produce a long drawn-out…
