President Biden’s decision to re-nominate Jerome Powell as Chair of the Fed governing board removes some uncertainty but doesn’t alter…
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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
“Transitory” is fast becoming code for complacency. We know much of the current inflation shock is driven by specific factors…
The first Biden-Xi summit does not change our views on Chinese assets. We are not invested in Chinese equities or…
Current supply-chain disruptions, the “new transient”, are caused by imbalances in the global economy. These imbalances are embedded by Covid,…
The trend toward lower Covid infections has reversed. The reality is that the Pandemic is becoming a “Permademic” that will…
This, final for me, chapter on Quantum Economics completes the preceding trilogy (Quantum economics, The truth to tell and My…
Moderation of container costs and port congestion continued in latest seven days — albeit slightly — and the level remains…
The consequence of the Japanese election is that the yen will go to 120 versus the US dollar. It is…
Covid data analysis (latest 7 days)
The Glasgow Climate Conference will fail in its task. But there are regions and sectors that will combat climate change.…
Supply-chain disruptions have many “local” causes but they generate global crises. Many are durable. They seem to have come together…
Evergrande might be insolvent, but its liabilities look digestible for the many mouths of the Chinese state. Clamping down on…
Current stress points in the global economy, like supply-side disruptions, have idiosyncratic causes but all point in one direction: the…
The next German government is likely to be a coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the Liberals. The FDP…
The Fed might have moved closer to exiting the emergency measures implemented to counter the pandemic, but the FOMC still…
Cyberwarfare remains a significantly underappreciated threat. Its dangers are numerous, even absent of a full-blown conflict between the major powers.…
The AUKUS agreement will deepen the cold war with China. And it has repercussions in the EU and for US…
Disruption of supply chains will have significant effects on current global growth, inflation and equity margins. But it goes beyond…
The centre-left’s victory in Norway’s general election keeps the more radical parties that markets were worried about out of power.…
Today’s Governing Council meeting shows the ECB is steady as she goes. The reduction in the pace of purchases for…
Often a good strategist is seen as someone who can knit together a good story out of random variables and…
Shared prosperity is for real in China. The coherence between the fragmented state interventions we have already seen and the…
The CDU/CSU will lose the next election. So after 16 years of rule Germany will finally get a new government.…
In his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair sided with the doves and dismissed the risks of inflation. But the Fed…
The fall of Kabul raises questions about Biden’s competence and increases the chance that this will be a one-term Democratic…
The Afghan disaster is likely to mark the start of the collapse in the credibility of the Biden administration. There…
Hope, hype and then the reality is the best way to think about the IPCC report. Aside from some tougher…
The Covid-19 Delta strain and the economy are likely to reconnect globally. China’s policy to contain this mutation is both…
US growth should remain robust. While government transfers continue to be pared back, the resurgence of the service sector will…
The Saw Tooth recovery created by the pandemic generates demand at different rates in different areas at different times. This…
There are two key variables to consider when investing in Chinese assets. First, the change in Chinese Communist Party (CCP)…
President Lagarde seemed hopeful that the ECB’s new inflation framework was a positive step forward. But the policy response seems…
Poor political decision-making has allowed the Covid-19 Delta variant to get a foothold among un-vaccinated groups. These still make up…
The idea that the US housing market is nearing bubble territory is far removed from reality. Prices might be rising,…
While the spread of the Delta variant is concentrated in healthy young adults in the developed economies, and vaccination coverage…
The ECB’s adjustment to its inflation targeting framework will require an ‘easier for longer’ policy stance. It might even necessitate…
This is about the shape of the economic cycle. The pandemic has created a new cycle: the ‘saw tooth’. We…
Headline data suggest the European pandemic experience entailed far more economic damage than seen in the US. Indeed, US GDP…
The outcome of the fairly low-key French regional elections at the weekend shouldn’t spook investors. The result was a fairly…
The jump in Taiwan’s already large external surpluses is not a one-off increase that will be corrected. Demand for the…
The Fed wake-up call was an event long awaited and long foreseen. But market response was not as I thought.…
The Fed has blinked. The committee sees a need for higher rates sooner than Powell had hoped. But the Fed’s…
While the green revolution continues to gather steam, there is still a high degree of procrastination going on. The radical…
We have been long agricultural commodities (corn, wheat, soyabeans) since 18 January 2021 (see our report Buying food). Prices have…
Italy’s Target 2 story is a microcosm of a macrocosm and one that tells us a lot about the ECB,…
The CDU victory (of sorts) in the final regional election before September’s federal election reaffirm all our European strategic positions:…
Some things are clear. Lasting stimulus, particularly in the US, will keep demand above what the supply-side was traditionally capable…
It may be useful to set down our major recommendations and how they have changed recently. We have switched on…
“It’s true that hard work never killed anybody, but I figure, why take the chance?” Ronald Reagan apparently once quipped.…
The dollar’s relatively better poise over the first quarter looks to be over. Bidenomics and the US money printing this…
