Policy normalisation is a great post-Covid challenge. It will be forced on policy makers by markets, rather than being an…
Reports - Full Archive
The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
Economies will overheat. Worst in the US (but UK and Australia in tow). This will start a two year equity…
Australia has emerged as one of the more successful countries in fending off Covid. Geography played its part. But equally,…
Putting all my asset allocation ideas together is just that: herding cats. They do not hang together with the seamless…
With Draghi running the country, Italy will be led by a heavyweight. He is highly respected on the global scene…
We have been long copper this year, as the quick economic recovery in China boosted global demand, while the Covid…
The thought occurred to me that it is very odd the way Covid has been evolving. The news abounds about…
You may remember that a person from Porlock interrupted Coleridge’s composition of the oneiric poem Kubla Khan. My person from…
Equities are the most vulnerable asset class to vaccine wars. The euro is perhaps the most vulnerable rich-country currency. All…
Bitcoin and its ilk are loved and loathed. In many eyes these are fabricated assets and hold only fictional value.…
Germany’s CDU has a new leader. But the vexed question of who will become the centre-right’s candidate to succeed Angela…
Markets care about stimulus but not much about Covid. They look through the Covid data. But this is wrong. Covid…
The latest WASDE report by the US Department of Agriculture supports our long position in wheat. There is further upside…
We are looking to Italy to see the re-emergence of populism and a sovereign debt crisis which would hit the…
There will rarely be a year when macro events hold greater sway. Our macro outlook: US 10-year Treasury yields will…
This week kicks off a momentous political year in Germany, culminating in the federal election in September and subsequent retirement…
A short while ago Quantum Economics was written (15 December 2020). It sparked numerous conversations and comments from clients, commentators…
The Brexit deal is a major economic negative for the UK. The cost will become progressively apparent rather than result…
David Roche gives an introduction to our report “Quantum Economics”. This piece explores how Quantum Mechanics influences macroeconomics and how…
The extensive support provided by monetary and fiscal policy marks this crisis as a very different one for the banks.…
The investment message below is that we are long equities. Not forever. But for now. And we prefer cyclical sectors…
The vaccine news and the Biden presidency combined keep us positive on equities, negative on global bonds, neutral the euro…
Erdogan’s removal of another central bank governor and the resignation of his son-in-law from the finance ministry points to a…
With Biden finally over the line (see our report US election: sorting husks from chaff, 7 November 2020), we outline…
The US election is over, bar the shouting (recounts and court cases). Unsurprisingly, Biden has won. But badly. His mandate…
We are taking off our long EUR, short USD position that we have held since June. We expect Biden to…
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are a reality; the timeframe for adoption is the uncertainty. Central bank involvement is not…
A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some…
The public sector’s aggressive action prevented the Covid-crisis turning into another global financial crisis. But many of the remedies were…
Covid has caused plenty of economic pain across the world, but we have not seen much sign of specific Emerging…
We are waiting on the presidential election outturn to take a more positive stance on US financial assets, particularly equity…
Despite the bounce in the greenback over the past week, short US dollar and long euro and yen remain our…
Online product and service providers have been the main equity market winners so far this year. But the concentration of…
The results of the Italian regional elections and the approval of the electoral reform law by referendum last weekend should…
The Fed’s new monetary policy framework looks aggressive in some ways. It allows the FOMC to pursue average inflation targeting…
It is hard to say much about the upcoming US elections. Biden is so bland as to be much like…
The primary focus of the ECB remains on fostering a sustainable recovery. The current policy stance fits with that. And…
We have avoided taking a position in sterling throughout the Brexit negotiations; the odds were too binary. But the government’s…
And so the deckchairs are folded in the garden shed, the beach towels ranged and fragrant in the hotpress and…
Our currency convictions are 1) short USD/long EUR; 2) short BRL, TRY, BRL, INR, IDR) v long EUR; plus 3)…
If you think of places as planets, Hong Kong is a very small planet indeed and China a big one…
We do have a V-shaped recovery. But there are two big “ifs”. What happens when the state bailouts end? And…
Capital flight continues from China. This isn’t new and it’s really not a problem, despite the perception that this is…
The long-awaited approval of the European Union Recovery Fund marks another seminal step towards closer European integration. Like all of…
Turkey’s easy monetary policy stance and domestic credit boom is starting to feed back into higher inflation. But with the…
We do not think that China can win the Cold War with the United States. Last month we published a…
This report looks at where and how the economic recovery from Covid could be sustainable. Countries that will do better…
The pandemic might have shattered the economy and ushered in ever more aggressive interventionism from the monetary and fiscal authorities.…
Writing a year or more ago when we floated the idea of the superiority of techno-autocracies over liberal democracies, it…
It is something of a consensus view that equities are an inflation hedge. But this is only true if demand…
