Independent Strategy

The productivity slowdown: the legacy and the future

Low productivity growth has been a persistent feature since the Global Financial Crisis. Why? On balance our conclusion is that credit bubble legacy problems will remain an issue for several more years. But beyond that, Disruptive Technologies will kick in and heft productivity and growth. The countries and sectors that embrace this will be the winners. What is less obvious is that these countries will have both higher growth and lower inflation. So it is quite likely that they will also have stronger currencies because of both trade and capital flows. And lower bond yields (where there is some nominal yield left).

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