Independent Strategy

Putin’s modest proposal

War in Ukraine is more than 50% probable in the next month. But the face-off with Russia is about far more than Ukraine. It is about Putin’s judgement that now is the moment to push a decaying US back within its own borders and reduce Europe to quasi vassal status. Russia’s direct sphere of influence would encompass all Eastern Europe and Transcaucasia. All this has been presented to the US in the form of non-negotiable twin treaties to be signed on the dotted line. We face a Munich moment with immediate consequences for markets. But whether it is war in Ukraine or “accomodation” of Russia, either way Putin is likely to be the winner. This confrontation has the potential to hurt asset prices. This report describes strategy to minimise the hit.

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