HKD interest rates have dropped far below Fed-set USD rates in this cycle. Under a currency board system, that can’t…
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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
China’s zero-Covid policy has reached its limits. The intention is gradually to relax restrictions while efforts to improve vaccination rates,…
The jump in Taiwan’s already large external surpluses is not a one-off increase that will be corrected. Demand for the…
A Hong Kong (HK) political crisis is brewing beyond Covid. There are two elements. First, Hong Kong is a perfect…
The victory of pro-democracy candidates in the weekend’s Hong Kong (HK) district council elections creates another problem for US/China trade…
The Australian economy has had a great run, avoiding recession for almost three decades. Most macro indicators are in reasonable shape. But there are three risks looming. First, high levels of household debt and heavy exposure to residential housing put domestic demand under the spotlight.
People are always keen to write off China. Its authoritarian regime has built up malinvestments and debt beyond that of any other emerging economy, both in nominal terms and as a share of GDP. Even its GDP is often deemed to be over-inflated. But we are not on the cusp of a collapse. For a start, China’s financial system still has relatively closed circuitry, with the money being owed mostly by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to state-owned banks, meaning relatively modest connectivity to the wider world.
Chinese data suggests the trade war is biting. This is focusing minds in Beijing, meaning some kind of deal between…
The buoyant Japanese labour market is finally generating some wage pressure. But Japanese demographics have created a structural demand deficit…
China’s economic model is rebalancing towards domestic demand. While not without its risks, at the moment this shift is proceeding…
China recorded a rare current account deficit in the first quarter. This isn’t likely to mark the start of a…
President Xi is a communist ideologue committed to the supremacy of the Party. These ideals contradict many of China’s economic…
Despite South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s latest efforts to cool matters with the North, it is going to be a…
China’s monumental One Belt One Road (OBOR) project is beginning to take shape. OBOR may turn out to be even…
We view Chinese steps to restrain leverage a positive development, proving that the authorities are equally capable of removing the…
The Chinese Communist party’s top leadership will be reshuffled at the end of 2017. The most likely outcome is that…
China’s foreign exchange policy is evolving. The current offshore renminbi short squeeze and the exchange control measures introduced recently seek…
Russia and the West have embarked on a new type of cold war. A Clinton presidency will mean further face-offs…
We’re unlikely to see the real colour of President Xi Jinping’s zeal until after the appointment of the next Politburo…
India’s reform credentials have been questionable at best. The administration of PM Modi has fallen into the traditional trap of…
There are signs of life in DM demand after the spring soft patch. That provides some positive news for Asian…
The legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been underpinned by rising living standards. But as trend growth rates…
The issue of Chinese capital flight might have fallen down the list of global risks, but this respite will be…
India has long been regarded as the best of a bad bunch in the EM universe, insulated in part by…
We owned a long yen position versus some of our Asian EM currency shorts. The BoJ’s switch to a negative…
Whichever method you use to measure capital flight from China the story is similar; around $100bn of cash is heading…
Managing the renminbi via a trade weighted index can be seen as part of the economic reform process. It makes…
We are increasing our short Chinese renminbi position and adding to our Asian EM currency shorts, with Korea and Taiwan…
Putin’s aggression first in Ukraine and now in Syria was roundly criticised. But following the recent terrorist attacks in Paris…
The shift in the Chinese exchange rate policy reinforces our strategic positions of being short renminbi (see our report China…
PM Abe’s economic strategy consists of monetary stimulus, fiscal reform and the famous structural ‘third arrow’. His achievements are paltry.…
Japan’s government pension investment fund (GPIF) continues to rotate into higher yielding assets. This flow remains supportive for local stocks…
While the latest Ukraine ceasefire deal promises an immediate halt of violence, it cedes more territory to pro-Russian rebels and…
Korea’s economy is almost a poster child for economic imbalances. It is dependent on increasingly concentrated exports. Domestic demand as…
Slowing domestic growth and deflation risks posed by a combination of weak global demand and rapid US dollar appreciation are…
Japanese pension giant GPIF’s asset rotation is more modest than it looks at first glance. The real impact is from…
Civil disobedience in Hong Kong is a challenging problem for Beijing. Democracy campaigners are not willing to compromise, nor are…
Japan’s deteriorating trade deficit exposes one of the biggest problems with Abenomics. It places too much weight on the Bank…
Current valuations fully reflect the good things about New Zealand, they do nothing to factor in developing risks. House price…
The Japanese recovery is vulnerable. Confidence deteriorated ahead of April’s consumption tax rise and inflation is eroding modest (if rare)…
The annexation of Crimea is irreversible. But the West appears determined to curtail any further Russian encroachment, into Ukraine or…
Despite China’s National Audit Office (NAO) reporting that the total public debt ratio was still well under 60% of GDP…
