Independent Strategy

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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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China

6th December, 2022 » China’s Covid easing

China’s zero-Covid policy has reached its limits. The intention is gradually to relax restrictions while efforts to improve vaccination rates,…

Taiwan

22nd June, 2021 » Recycling riches

The jump in Taiwan’s already large external surpluses is not a one-off increase that will be corrected. Demand for the…

Hong Kong

25th November, 2019 » Democratic tensions

The victory of pro-democracy candidates in the weekend’s Hong Kong (HK) district council elections creates another problem for US/China trade…

The Australian economy has had a great run, avoiding recession for almost three decades. Most macro indicators are in reasonable shape. But there are three risks looming. First, high levels of household debt and heavy exposure to residential housing put domestic demand under the spotlight.

China

4th April, 2019 » The Iceman Cometh?

People are always keen to write off China. Its authoritarian regime has built up malinvestments and debt beyond that of any other emerging economy, both in nominal terms and as a share of GDP. Even its GDP is often deemed to be over-inflated. But we are not on the cusp of a collapse. For a start, China’s financial system still has relatively closed circuitry, with the money being owed mostly by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to state-owned banks, meaning relatively modest connectivity to the wider world.

Japan

17th July, 2018 » Behind the Shōji

The buoyant Japanese labour market is finally generating some wage pressure. But Japanese demographics have created a structural demand deficit…

Japan

28th July, 2014 » Japan – false hope

Japan’s deteriorating trade deficit exposes one of the biggest problems with Abenomics. It places too much weight on the Bank…

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