Germany’s export-driven success leaves it highly vulnerable to changes in global trade flows. It’s also facing broad structural pressures. The…
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The ongoing slump in German industrial activity isn’t likely to end soon. Many of the problems are structural and result…
The ECB’s latest stimulus package seeks to address several problems and does so quite neatly. Banks win, thanks to tiering…
Despite dodging one hard Brexit bullet, the underlying picture for the UK hasn’t changed much. A further extension of Article…
The populists might get 30% of the vote in the European Parliamentary elections, but that will translate into just above…
Pedro Sanchez’ gamble to call a snap election paid off. His PSOE has become the biggest party in parliament, its share of the vote at least 10% points ahead of any other. Yet one is left with a lingering sense of fragmentation, especially on the right.
Faltering growth and undershooting inflation expose the contradictions of the ECB’s current policy approach. Despite Draghi’s insistence, they remain well…
The collapse of Spain’s centre-left government has sounded the alarm bells. The country will now go to the polls in April, its fourth election in eight years. However, this does not mean populist parties are about to take over.
We’ve expected Sweden’s political and monetary policy shifts to give the Swedish krona (SEK) a boost. And it did for…
Europe is suffering from a noxious combination of slowing growth and rising political risk. It also has a central bank…
The ECB has a fine line to tread, since its forward guidance is out of kilter with the slowdown in…
The recent decline in UK house prices is principally function of Brexit-related uncertainty. You’d have to be mad to buy…
Bavaria goes to the polls next on Sunday (October 14th). Regional elections don’t usually matter much, but this one is…
Rising bond yields might have forced the populist Italian government to moderate its tone ahead of next year’s budget, but…
Sweden’s general election should allow the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats to take a further step forward. But the centrists will rally…
Europe’s debt crisis led to some meaningful banking sector reforms. Efforts to recapitalise and improve balance sheets by disposing of…
Prime Minister Theresa May has long insisted that the UK would leave both the Single Market and the Customs Union.…
While the approval of the German coalition deal is a positive step for European integration, the uncertainty thrown up by…
The Italian elections are unlikely to deliver a thumping victory to any party. That’ll leave a government with a weak…
To remain as German Chancellor for another term, Angela Merkel has had to make serious concessions. The most important of…
The Catalonian election results won’t weigh on the euro or EU financial assets in the short term. Whether this holds…
The evolution of German coalition discussions leaves us more optimistic on a pro-European outcome. While we don’t expect an immediate…
The surprise collapse of German coalition negotiations leaves Chancellor Merkel stranded. She is now faced with trying to forge ahead…
Borrowing more and drawing down on savings can only smooth the decline in the UK’s living standards triggered by Brexit.…
ECB monetary policy will remain easier for longer, which means an extension of the asset purchase programme (APP) while maintaining…
Spanish PM Rajoy has miscalculated in Catalonia. The independence genie can’t be recorked. This adds a new layer of political…
Politics rarely defines market trends, but it does alter risks in the shorter term. There is a clutch present in…
The CDU’s share of the vote may have shrunk but it remains the dominant party in Germany. This leaves Merkel…
The outlook for the UK economy is fraught with risks. Brexit creates obvious headwinds for consumers and corporations alike. We…
The outcome of the UK election is bad for sterling. We expect it to fall towards parity with the euro…
Emmanuel Macron will become the next French president. He will have unfettered power to relaunch the EU with Germany post…
Our positive view of the Eurozone is predicated upon the rejection of populism in pending EU elections. The political developments…
Theresa May should easily get the required two-thirds of votes in parliament to call her surprise general election. The outcome…
It is easy to be pessimistic about the future of the EU. But disaster is not inevitable. There are several…
Eurozone bond yields continue to lag the improvement seen across the economy and the improvement in the global inflation outlook.…
While we don’t think we’re on the cusp of persistently fast Eurozone inflation, the ECB’s price forecasts materially understate the…
Europe faces key elections this year. Uncertainty about the outcomes with the possibility of populist parties winning is driving up…
Brexit is about to begin in earnest. Yet the paucity of detail in the UK government’s White Paper betrays the…
The “precautionary recapitalisation” of Monte dei Paschi should remove the Italian banking sector’s problems from the front pages for the…
The anger vote has claimed its next victim — Italian reform. The dominoes of Brexit, Trump and now Italy (but…
The outcome of the Italian referendum is binary. If it’s a ‘yes’ vote the tide of populism throughout Europe would…
It’s another reason to stay short Italian bonds. We also add a short position in Irish bonds. Ireland managed to…
Russia and the West have embarked on a new type of cold war. A Clinton presidency will mean further face-offs…
We are sticking to our strategic short position for sterling versus the US dollar and revising our target down to…
The British government under PM Theresa May has announced that Brexit negotiations will no later than end-March 2017. So Britain…
There is no simple fix to Deutsche Bank’s problems. Really they are just an oversized example of the structural frailties…
Sentiment towards Poland has been tarnished by the more populist mutterings of the PiS government. But Poland remains a highly…
