The post-Brexit Conservative government in the UK under Theresa May has a clear run in negotiating with the EU over…
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There are five options for the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU once it has left. There is the…
However you look at it, avoiding Brexit looks like an outlier scenario. So Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty should…
Post-Brexit referendum crisis
What if the UK said yes to Brexit?
Our base case is that the UK will vote to remain in the EU. But the shift in the polls…
Although the polls continue to suggest the UK’s in/out referendum is too close to call, we maintain the view that…
Draghi’s rhetoric only goes so far. The ECB is failing to meet its inflation mandate by an increasing margin. The…
The inconclusive outcome to last weekend’s Irish general election raises two important points. First, none of the parties have a…
The Spanish election looks to be turning into the worst possible outcome, neither side, left or right, will be capable…
While the market may have been underwhelmed by the latest ECB policy steps, Draghi’s programme will remain a powerful headwind…
Putin’s aggression first in Ukraine and now in Syria was roundly criticised. But following the recent terrorist attacks in Paris…
If you thought that the “resolution” of the Greek bailout crisis in the summer would give the EU project breathing…
The fall of Portugal’s minority centre-right government is significant. It takes place in the face of a generalised rise in…
The UK will vote to stay in the EU. It is highly likely that UK Prime Minister David Cameron can…
Pine trees look awfully similar, so perhaps we should be more forgiving when the Riksbank continually barks up the wrong…
Pro-independence parties look set to win a majority in the regional Catalan parliament this weekend. This could open up protracted…
Italy’s economic track record has been pretty woeful in recent years. The economy has been dogged by high and rising…
A Greek deal is now more likely (60% probability from 40%). It is likely to be based on poor economics…
Turkish and Greek developments and potential negative outcomes leave Europe with a rotten south eastern border, constituted by two NATO…
Eurozone (EZ) monetary policy is finally delivering as the effects of earlier rate cuts, ongoing asset purchases and the weaker…
The structure of the ECB’s QE programme confirms our short euro versus long US dollar position. We also maintain our…
In Europe, the most lasting legacy of the financial crisis looks set to be the change in the political landscape…
Eurozone data continues to surprise on the positive side, a theme that should persist over the first half of the…
While the latest Ukraine ceasefire deal promises an immediate halt of violence, it cedes more territory to pro-Russian rebels and…
The probability of a timely deal between the Greeks and the EU is now down to 35% (from 50%) and…
Rational players would avoid a showdown on Greece. But the new Syriza government has not embarked on such a course.…
Despite the challenges of deflation, the ECB looks to have been relatively successful in easing monetary conditions in the Eurozone.…
The ECB’s QE package delivered. It was bigger than expected, broad in range and for a kicker the TLTRO terms…
Although the Eurozone (EZ) current account surplus is moving higher, the flows on the capital account side are negative. The…
The abandonment of the SNB’s currency peg versus the euro is a reminder of the deflationary forces stalking the global…
Greece faces parliamentary elections as soon as 25 January following the failure of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras to install his…
By declaring an early presidential election, Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has taken the initiative. He has backed his position…
The ECB is set to introduce ‘full blown’ quantitative easing (QE) early in 2015. Other methods of credit injections will…
The Italian economy is similar to the proverbial frog in the slowly warming pan of water. The frog knows it…
The risk that the UK may decide to leave the EU within the next few years has risen with the…
Downside economic risks warranting preparation of new extraordinary measures and a quantification of ECB balance sheet expansion were the two…
