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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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28th November, 2023 » Dearly beloved …  NEW

The new doctrine of self-exoneration and supply-side inflation guilt means that central bankers will not raise rates any more and…


24th November, 2023 » Double Dutch  NEW

The victory of Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) in this week’s Netherlands election follows a familiar pattern. Electorates across Europe…


27th October, 2023 » Dark clouds

Our forecast has been for a long war of attrition with Ukraine holding its own and wearing down the Russians.…


15th August, 2023 » Debt inflation

China’s property sector implosion is worsening and credit growth is falling. The economy is entering a debt deflation trap. We…


25th July, 2023 » It’s not Goldilocks

Are the developed economies entering a ‘sweet spot’, a Goldilocks economy where ‘normal’ inflation resumes, interest rates fall, economic growth…


24th July, 2023 » Spanish fandango

Spain’s snap election over the weekend proved inconclusive. While the centre-right Partido Popular came out on top they failed to…


17th July, 2023 » Weighing wheat

It looks like this time Putin may be serious about pulling out of the grain deal. Together with El Nino/global…


29th June, 2023 » From populism to power

There’s an important change in political trajectory in Europe. So-called extremist parties are gaining power and office in Europe’s governments.…


24th June, 2023 » Russian coup

This is definitely an attempted Prigozhin/Wagner coup against Shoigu and Gerasimov and indirectly Putin. Our view is that this coup…


22nd May, 2023 » Banking Monitor

Since the beginning of the current crisis, bank deposits have fallen $390bn, while borrowing from the Fed and other sources…


8th May, 2023 » Banking Monitor

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate again last week and indicated that any fall in the rate was unlikely…


1st May, 2023 » Banking Monitor

The imminent sell-off of First Republic Bank is another chapter in the banking crisis. There was large outflow of deposits…


24th April, 2023 » Banking Monitor

With the immediate liquidity crisis over, the Fed has now returned to cutting its balance sheet, mainly through reductions in…


17th April, 2023 » Banking monitor

The banking crisis in March appears to be over, according to the latest April data from the Federal Reserve. But…


10th April, 2023 » Banking Monitor

Total borrowing by banks from the Fed fell back a little last week and the Fed resumed its tightening mode.…


3rd April, 2023 » Banking monitor

The banking panic subsided a little in the week ending 31 March. But investor confidence in the banks remains low…


27th March, 2023 » Banking Monitor

US commercial bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve facilities continued to rise last week, while deposits continued to move out…

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