China’s debt problems persist and are increasingly evident in the housing market. While this is unlikely to lead to immediate…
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We reduced our longs in grains last month following the agreement between Russia and Ukraine to allow the shipment of…
Against the consensus, we reckon that the EU may well have enough gas supply over the coming winter and beyond…
China is currently de facto blockading Taiwan. Our reading is that the PLA announcement of further manoeuvres in Bohai and…
We no longer recommend being short Italian or other southern Eurozone government bonds.
The Hong Kong dollar peg value against the US dollar is now near its weakest point. This has led some…
Russia plans to cut gas supply to the EU through NordStream 1 (NS1) back to 20% tomorrow. This is sooner…
Italy’s PM Mario Draghi is resigning after losing the support of parties in the governing coalition. This will hit Italian…
Political uncertainty in Italy is back on the agenda. This will weigh on Italian financial assets and the euro.
The announcement of a provisional agreement negotiated between Ukraine and Russia to resume the export of Ukrainian grain blocked by…
Russia has its finger on the trigger aimed at the economic heart of whomever takes measures against it – however…
The ECB, faced with any threat of EU fragmentation, has stated that it has the resources and can create the…
The EU Initiative on Gas Storage, published overnight, misses the point that the issue is not storage but where the…
The next big shock generated by Russia may be gas. It could come from Russia cutting deliveries to the EU…
Political positioning has already begun ahead of Italy’s parliamentary elections next Spring. After a long-running feud within Italy’s Five Star…
President Emmanuel Macron’s party has lost its majority in the French National Assembly. And the result matters.
In a world of rising interest rates and tightening liquidity that is hitting equity and bond markets, commodities remain a…
The Fed raised the Federal Funds interest rate by 75bp to a target rate of 1.5-1.75%. This is a good…
The ad-hoc ECB meeting on widening yield spreads posed many questions.
In the first round of the French parliamentary election President Macron’s coalition and the left’s grouping ended up neck and…
Our forecast is that the world will avoid outright recession (though the EU is prone to ‘Warcession’). There are three…
The world will continue to split along Cold War lines – economically, culturally, technologically and scientifically. Inflation and recession risks…
The Russian war in Ukraine will last years, not months. Eventually, Putin will bite the dust. But this could just…
The world economy is conflicted by variables that will slow growth and headline inflation. But not enough to make bonds…
By any measure, grain and oilseed supplies are going to be justifiably tight for at least another year, particularly if…
There are three spectres of recession stalking the globe. Fed tightening; Zero-Covid disruption; and the war in Ukraine. All three…
The dialogue about Ukraine is set to widen to include the issue of economic resources and how they will be…
We went short the renminbi (RMB) on 12 December 2021. At the time, the RMB traded at around USD6.35. For…
The shifting goals of war will not produce stability, reduced sanctions or Russian withdrawals. They will produce a long drawn-out…
This report discusses the four key variables that lead us to be: 1.Long agricultural commodities, gold and strategic metals; 2.Long…
The first round of the French presidential elections takes place on Sunday. Incumbent Macron will be the leader, with Marine…
Warcession is not like stagflation. This report analyses the difference. Warcession is most likely to hit the EU first and…
The discovery of Russian army atrocities in Ukraine lifts us to a new plane of war and for longer. We…
Diminishing the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency will be gradual. Autocracies will accelerate their efforts to escape…
There has been no shift in our view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine since April last year (see our…
While the EU Council of Ministers meeting is ongoing, what we know so far from the G7/NATO and EU response…
In our recent piece (New world (dis)order) we mapped a post-conflict global economy which had a bigger state sector, low…
The Fed delivered as expected and promised six 25bps hikes in the Fed Funds rate this year. There was only…
What will the post-conflict world look like? What lies beyond the immediate “Warcession” discussed yesterday? This short piece describes the…
Equity markets are likely to continue to go lower. The US dollar will be stronger. Commodity prices will stay high.…
China’s “twin sessions” of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference…
The Russians are in for a long war, whether they ultimately get Ukraine or not. Insurgency with western backing would…
One of the more interesting phenomena of our ‘inflationary world’ is the fact that market-priced inflation expectations remain relatively well…
There are no changes to our existing hedges. We remain long the US dollar, long energy and agricultural commodities plus…
The sanctions announced by the US and Europe are not the sort of killer apps that would stop the Russian…
Our Russia hedges (long energy, agricultural commodities and gold, short bonds, equities (EU focused etc.) have worked well. A market…
Mostly and most investors view geopolitical events as of little relevance to economies and markets. In the case (60% probability)…
The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) continues to support…
Four things in case I forget… Russia, the structural demand shift to manufactured goods, synchronised monetary tightening and Covid. All…
It is increasingly clear that changes wrought by the pandemic will prove long-lasting. That applies to both the structure of…
