The SPD’s new leadership choice might appear radical but it’s unlikely to mark the start of a coalition collapse. What…
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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
Fixed income portfolios have enjoyed a bumper year in 2019. Yields are at rock bottom. That makes achieving even moderate…
While some might view the latest ‘postponement’ of Brexit as another example of can kicking in reality, it materially changes…
This report discusses what strategy would look like if the US dollar were suddenly to lose its safe-haven status. This…
The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…
The trade negotiations in Washington are unlikely to shift the needle of global confidence or impending recession significantly. The Washington…
If debt were productive it would produce more than itself. This is what is needed to pay for it in…
Australian policymakers are on the back foot. Domestic demand is caught between falling house prices and rising unemployment. Solid trade…
The old Hong Kong we knew will not return. The political social and economic model is dead. This makes Hong…
Nothing in recent events has mellowed our views on the risks facing the global economy. The China/US trade conflict is…
Another ratchet up in the US-China trade war and the intensification of the Hong Kong protests mean that we would…
There have been a number of recent developments that impact our asset allocation. First, we are adding more euro shorts…
The state also was the key player in all the Asian emerging markets that graduated from middle-income to rich economy…
G20 bout resulted in no knock-out! We got a trade war truce, but we didn’t get any shift in the…
The world is closer to a recession than markets anticipate. This report sets out the many interlinked causal factors that…
The current boom in investment spending among the tech giants is now close to the entire Federal budget for education,…
The most dangerous fights are the ones where both contenders have total confidence they will win. The US-China trade spat…
Expectations for easier US monetary policy are taking the wind from the dollar’s sails. These market changes reflect the worsening…
The breakdown of US/China trade talks and President Trump’s decision to add a further layer of tariff s on Chinese…
The reality is that the US woke up too late to the risk of China usurping them as the key…
By a narrow probability, it is likely that the US-China trade talks can be saved. But only just. The complacency…
We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals.
Based on how far the US term premium has fallen, to see any further meaningful decline in bond yields we’d need another downside macro shock.
The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession indicator that always enlivens markets. While statistically the curve is an excellent forecaster of downturns, there is much to suggest things might be a little different this time.
More than 12 years after the start of the global financial crisis (GFC) central banks do not feel able to…
Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has turned into a more prolonged slowdown, certainly in Europe and Asia.
There is an assumption that demography is a slow-burn theme that can be filed away for the long term. But working age populations are already shrinking in many of the major economies.
Despite positive noises on wages from both the Fed and the ECB there is little sign we’re returning to the…
The Fed has shifted policy on the path for the Fed Funds rate and the normalisation of its balance sheet.…
US equities have hugely outperformed their international peers over the long haul and other US financial assets in the short…
There have been various points of blame for weak auto sales. The most under-appreciated input has been technological innovation, as…
America’s trade conflict with China reflects two things. First, the angst of a declining US power. Second, the ego-centric conflict…
Unlike most geopolitical phenomena, populism is not a high-impact low-probability event. It is hard to run your life (or portfolio)…
The markets have been given two adrenalin shots to boost the Santa Claus rally: Fed Chairman Powell’s statement that the…
Global economic growth has peaked almost everywhere. This cancels most of our long-term fixed income shorts, with the exception of…
Globalisation was not a perfect process. While it hefted living standards emerging markets, the trade-off was a stagnation of incomes…
This is not a report that tries to divine its way through the UK’s shambolic political scene. Instead, it examines…
Despite Germany enjoying full employment, a budget surplus and generally solid economic performance, there is little faith in the grand…
We are going short the euro versus the Us dollar. And some investors may consider going long gold versus the…
The world is now a degree warmer on average than in pre-industrial times and at current linear (and thus possibly…
Millennials are a diverse bunch that share as many differences as they do similarities. Where comparisons are useful is in…
Stability in markets is often self-reinforcing but as the cycle tops out we start to see divergences. We seem to…
Turkey is bust and will get more so. However, with the risk of capital controls imminent, it is time to…
It’s undeniable that we’re living in an epoch of technological transformation. And one that is unprecedented in history. With the…
North Korea can go four ways from here. 1) Nothing changes. 2) Voluntary unification (German style). 3) Implosion. 4) Or…
Policy measures taken by the Chinese authorities show they are serious about combatting risks to growth. These were the consequence…
Prospects for a quiet summer look slim in Italy. Tensions between the coalition partners will rise as expensive election promises,…
The Trump protectionist threat is the most likely cause of the next financial rout. The rot will start in equity…
Kim Jong Un has proven to be an adept diplomat, turning the risks of developing an operational nuclear deterrent into…
President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal was expected, but that doesn’t make it less of a gamble. The…
