We have cut our short euro versus long US dollar position. We remain short bonds across developed markets.
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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
Tensions on the Ukrainian-Russian border might come to nothing during the Winter Olympics, but once that event is over it…
After a week and seven unsuccessful attempts to find common ground and elect a new President of the Republic to…
The UK has had a bad pandemic. The economy shrank more than other G7 members and the country has only…
More than 90% of the world’s transoceanic data traffic travels in cables at the bottom of the sea. Satellites carry…
President Biden has now offered a face-to-face summit with President Putin to discuss Russia’s security concerns. So, President Biden is…
Japan remains an oddity. It has suffered from the pandemic but none of the residual problems seen elsewhere — specifically…
War in Ukraine is more than 50% probable in the next month. But the face-off with Russia is about far…
Two visions describe where we are. “The sun shone, having no alternative, on nothing new.” And “We are closed in,…
As I write on December 29, the answer is not clear.
This piece brings together information about Omicron and supply-side disruptions. It finds the two are inextricably linked. Covid will continue…
One of the best ways in quantum physics to explain a particle’s behaviour is to take a dice and spin…
With both the Fed and the ECB ending the year with tapering in mind, it might seem that the monetary…
Christmas mines images from childhood. There is one in my mind that is more like Chirico than Santa. The colours…
There is a moment as flood turns to ebb when, in a few pools on the beach, the tide still…
The unequal distribution of US household assets is a reality. The pandemic was never going to change that. But measures…
The big consensus new year forecasts are published: 61.3 pages each on average for the five that I have read.…
The B.1.1.529 virus has been designated a Covid-19 variant of concern with the name Omicron. Our investment take is that…
Germany is finally moving towards a new government with a formal coalition agreement inked by the three coalition partners —…
As fossil fuel production is reduced over the next generation, the electrification of the planet will mean a massive increase…
President Biden’s decision to re-nominate Jerome Powell as Chair of the Fed governing board removes some uncertainty but doesn’t alter…
“Transitory” is fast becoming code for complacency. We know much of the current inflation shock is driven by specific factors…
The first Biden-Xi summit does not change our views on Chinese assets. We are not invested in Chinese equities or…
Current supply-chain disruptions, the “new transient”, are caused by imbalances in the global economy. These imbalances are embedded by Covid,…
The trend toward lower Covid infections has reversed. The reality is that the Pandemic is becoming a “Permademic” that will…
This, final for me, chapter on Quantum Economics completes the preceding trilogy (Quantum economics, The truth to tell and My…
Moderation of container costs and port congestion continued in latest seven days — albeit slightly — and the level remains…
The consequence of the Japanese election is that the yen will go to 120 versus the US dollar. It is…
Covid data analysis (latest 7 days)
The Glasgow Climate Conference will fail in its task. But there are regions and sectors that will combat climate change.…
Supply-chain disruptions have many “local” causes but they generate global crises. Many are durable. They seem to have come together…
Evergrande might be insolvent, but its liabilities look digestible for the many mouths of the Chinese state. Clamping down on…
Current stress points in the global economy, like supply-side disruptions, have idiosyncratic causes but all point in one direction: the…
The next German government is likely to be a coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the Liberals. The FDP…
The Fed might have moved closer to exiting the emergency measures implemented to counter the pandemic, but the FOMC still…
Cyberwarfare remains a significantly underappreciated threat. Its dangers are numerous, even absent of a full-blown conflict between the major powers.…
The AUKUS agreement will deepen the cold war with China. And it has repercussions in the EU and for US…
Disruption of supply chains will have significant effects on current global growth, inflation and equity margins. But it goes beyond…
The centre-left’s victory in Norway’s general election keeps the more radical parties that markets were worried about out of power.…
Often a good strategist is seen as someone who can knit together a good story out of random variables and…
Shared prosperity is for real in China. The coherence between the fragmented state interventions we have already seen and the…
The CDU/CSU will lose the next election. So after 16 years of rule Germany will finally get a new government.…
In his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair sided with the doves and dismissed the risks of inflation. But the Fed…
The fall of Kabul raises questions about Biden’s competence and increases the chance that this will be a one-term Democratic…
The Afghan disaster is likely to mark the start of the collapse in the credibility of the Biden administration. There…
Hope, hype and then the reality is the best way to think about the IPCC report. Aside from some tougher…
US growth should remain robust. While government transfers continue to be pared back, the resurgence of the service sector will…
The Saw Tooth recovery created by the pandemic generates demand at different rates in different areas at different times. This…
There are two key variables to consider when investing in Chinese assets. First, the change in Chinese Communist Party (CCP)…
President Lagarde seemed hopeful that the ECB’s new inflation framework was a positive step forward. But the policy response seems…
