Independent Strategy

Russia as a supply-side shock

Tensions on the Ukrainian-Russian border might come to nothing during the Winter Olympics, but once that event is over it is still likely to spillover into conflict. This remains an under-appreciated risk in terms of economic fall-out. In a world suffering from numerous supply-side disruptions, a pariah Russia is the last thing needed. It is a key exporter of food, energy and metals — all of which are under-supplied and seeing strong demand. Sanctioning Russia for an invasion will be a political necessity, the economic fallout will be more than a political headache.

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