Independent Strategy

Saw tooth

This is about the shape of the economic cycle. The pandemic has created a new cycle: the ‘saw tooth’. We explain it below. It is characterised in many sectors and regions (but not all) by three successive periods of economic collapse, above-trend recovery and finally decline towards trend (which means negative growth). Locating a sector or country on the saw tooth cyclical map is relevant to equity, fixed income and currency investors.

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