Independent Strategy

Star Wars

America’s trade conflict with China reflects two things. First, the angst of a declining US power. Second, the ego-centric conflict between President Trump’s protectionist instincts and his self-constructed reputation as an unparalleled ‘dealmaker’. The confrontation between these two nations is the major geopolitical story of the next decade. But momentary truces can occur! We think we’re headed towards the first pause in this saga and that a ‘trade deal’ within the ‘90-days’ allocated by the White House is likely. That would be a shot in the arm for risk assets.

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