Independent Strategy

Surprise surprise

There will rarely be a year when macro events hold greater sway. Our macro outlook: US 10-year Treasury yields will be 1.70% by year end; equity markets will be 15% lower (having crashed by 30% first); the US dollar trend decline will continue, with momentary blips against the euro; early 2021 will be a false dawn for emerging market assets; after H1 it will become apparent that they are fall guys for low growth and global tensions ….. and all because the seamless consensus is vulnerable to quantum disruption!

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