Independent Strategy

The cost of War

The dialogue about Ukraine is set to widen to include the issue of economic resources and how they will be financed. If Ukraine is to be a viable buffer state between us and Russia, its economy must be viable too. It matters to portfolio managers for several reasons: it will cement the redistribution of profits towards social and political aims; it will increase Western budget deficits and debts; and it is likely to result in the creation of pan-EU joint liabilities (as the EU Next Generation Fund did). It makes any meaningful return to the fiscal limits of the social and stability pact unlikely.

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