Independent Strategy

The five peaces of happiness

The Happy Scenario for markets has five ‘peaces’. We believe in only one (no global recession). For the rest, we expect no Goldilocks scenario, sticky inflation, higher interest rates for longer and a continued profit squeeze.

Equity holdings should be focused in sectors like energy and those with low leverage and modest valuations whose business model we can understand. We hold quality sovereign bonds as an investment which won’t lose you a lot of money. The USD will continue to decline. We hold long yen and, less so, long EUR. In commodities, we are long oil, TTF gas (new) and agricultural commodities.

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