Independent Strategy

The heart and mind of darkness

Report Date:  14th October, 2023

War inside Gaza is now inevitable. The spillovers depend on Israel’s actions. The wider the ripples, the greater the global impact. Hold selected assets as an insurance policy against things going wrong, but not as a conviction trade that things will go wrong.
We are long oil and LNG. Long USD and NOK; Long US treasuries.
We are out of EM and EU assets.
We are short JGBs, long yen positions for other reasons.

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In the Media

Confidence in China isn’t coming back
Confidence in China isn’t coming back
David Roche CNBC Asia Squawkbox 08/11/23
David Roche does not think Iran will enter the mideast war, but he lays out scenarios if the conflict were to expand
David Roche does not think Iran will enter the mideast war, but he lays out scenarios if the conflict were to expand
David Roche CNBC Asia Street Signs 20/10/23
The US could slip into recession next year because the Fed seem determined to keep rates high for too long
The US could slip into recession next year because the Fed seem determined to keep rates high for too long
David Roche CNBC Asia Street Signs 20/10/23
China in the next decade
China in the next decade
David Roche Bloomberg TV 27/09/23

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