Independent Strategy

The slough of war

Report Date:  4th April, 2022

The discovery of Russian army atrocities in Ukraine lifts us to a new plane of war and for longer. We move deeper into confrontation. The flow of heavy arms to Ukraine will accelerate. The war will be prolonged. Equities are only a bet on nominal GDP boosted by rising inflation for as long the profit share is constant. Bond market yields will continue to rise. Recession remains a risk.

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