Independent Strategy

The sun can also do nothing

Report Date:  1st November, 2021

The consequence of the Japanese election is that the yen will go to 120 versus the US dollar. It is unlikely that a weaker yen will boost equities or JGB yields. Short yen can also be held against the Singapore dollar (now on a TWI +0.5% p.a. revaluation trend since the MAS policy shift in September. Being long the Australian dollar is a high-risk trade for a country in denial. Long term the Aussie is back to being a short. The Chinese renminbi remains a long-term short. The reason is the change in China’s economic, social, and political model set out in our many recent reports and emails.

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