Independent Strategy

The tale of the schizophrenic dog

This report attempts to:

1 – Sketch a way to think strategically when the determinants of markets are spinning in opposite directions – as economics and geopolitics are today – but are bound to unify.

2 – Examine emerging economic trends and hopes: a) a new normal for central banks (sustained growth and low inflation in the case of the Fed); b) the secular decline in global manufacturing and its replacement by a ManuServices economy with limited beneficiaries; c) can India replace China and reboot globalisation and Emerging Market (EM) fortunes?

3 – Analyse China and Russia’s Autocratic Alliance as it becomes more united in purpose, coordinated and efficient and thus more capable of defeating the Democratic Alliance, weakened by polarisation and populism.

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