The trade deal that isn’tReport Date: 14th October, 2019
The trade negotiations in Washington are unlikely to shift the needle of global confidence or impending recession significantly. The Washington pact is about having negotiations (over 3-5 weeks) to fix a deal. We doubt that, even in the event of a narrow agreement, China will comply with the broader range of US demands to change the way it manages its economy. We are leaving our key investment positions unchanged: long US Treasuries; long US dollar; long gold; short euro; short Australian dollar and holding downside option protection for equities. We continue to stay out of emerging markets.
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