Independent Strategy

The vaccine issue – why it matters

The gap between high and low Covid-19 vaccination countries will be the main determinant of economic performance this year. But the problem could prove longer lasting than that. These divergences will shape political opinion within lagging economies — both developed and emerging. It also has severe implications for emerging market growth, where Covid isolationism will compound the impact of rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar. That is particularly bad news for those that entered the crisis with pre-existing structural and political conditions.

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