The victory of pro-democracy candidates in the weekend’s Hong Kong (HK) district council elections creates another problem for US/China trade…
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The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…
The state also was the key player in all the Asian emerging markets that graduated from middle-income to rich economy…
G20 bout resulted in no knock-out! We got a trade war truce, but we didn’t get any shift in the…
The world is closer to a recession than markets anticipate. This report sets out the many interlinked causal factors that…
The current boom in investment spending among the tech giants is now close to the entire Federal budget for education,…
The most dangerous fights are the ones where both contenders have total confidence they will win. The US-China trade spat…
The breakdown of US/China trade talks and President Trump’s decision to add a further layer of tariff s on Chinese…
By a narrow probability, it is likely that the US-China trade talks can be saved. But only just. The complacency…
We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals.
Global equity markets are generally expensive. That’s because central bank largesse has inflated price (P). Meanwhile corporate profits (E) remain…
About this economic recovery, four things strike. First, services (“intangibles”) are ticking along nicely, but manufacturing is a disaster. Second, developed markets…
The Fed’s hold is simply a postponement of the inevitable first hike, which is most probably in December. EM risks are…
Italy’s economic track record has been pretty woeful in recent years. The economy has been dogged by high and rising…
We have been long equities for a very long time. We are now closing these long positions. The motivation is…
As inflation rises global capital will be repriced. The process will start in the US, though the UK may be…
Mexico’s reform agenda has progressed swiftly over the past year with legislation passed restructuring a number of key sectors. To…
Growth in the global economy will initially be quite powerful over the first half of 2014, driven by the US,…
