We are cutting our long US dollar positions. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen from 99 to 97 in a…
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We are shifting currency investments because of the collapse in the oil price which, coming on top of Covid-19, is…
There is much to worry about in India. The slowdown in growth might have coincided with global weakness, but the…
Thailand’s currency is completely out of line with fundamentals. A large current account surplus has sustained it but that is…
Australian policymakers are on the back foot. Domestic demand is caught between falling house prices and rising unemployment. Solid trade…
The state also was the key player in all the Asian emerging markets that graduated from middle-income to rich economy…
G20 bout resulted in no knock-out! We got a trade war truce, but we didn’t get any shift in the…
Faltering growth and undershooting inflation expose the contradictions of the ECB’s current policy approach. Despite Draghi’s insistence, they remain well…
We are making two changes to our portfolio allocations. First, we are moving back to a short yen position. Second,…
There is no change in our currency forecasts. But the way they’ll happen has shifted. Our biggest shorts remain EM…
About this economic recovery, four things strike. First, services (“intangibles”) are ticking along nicely, but manufacturing is a disaster. Second, developed markets…
The Fed’s hold is simply a postponement of the inevitable first hike, which is most probably in December. EM risks are…
Korea’s economy is almost a poster child for economic imbalances. It is dependent on increasingly concentrated exports. Domestic demand as…
The abandonment of the SNB’s currency peg versus the euro is a reminder of the deflationary forces stalking the global…
The decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to abolish the Swiss franc peg to the euro at 1.20 can…
As inflation rises global capital will be repriced. The process will start in the US, though the UK may be…
Mexico’s reform agenda has progressed swiftly over the past year with legislation passed restructuring a number of key sectors. To…
The annexation of Crimea is irreversible. But the West appears determined to curtail any further Russian encroachment, into Ukraine or…
Growth in the global economy will initially be quite powerful over the first half of 2014, driven by the US,…
On a dark day it may sound fanciful to ask if Italy can save the euro and the world. But it…
