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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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UK

4th November, 2019 » Beyond eternity  NEW

While some might view the latest ‘postponement’ of Brexit as another example of can kicking in reality, it materially changes…

US

17th October, 2019 » Warning signs  NEW

The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…

Global

26th August, 2019 » La Rentree

Nothing in recent events has mellowed our views on the risks facing the global economy. The China/US trade conflict is…

The Australian economy has had a great run, avoiding recession for almost three decades. Most macro indicators are in reasonable shape. But there are three risks looming. First, high levels of household debt and heavy exposure to residential housing put domestic demand under the spotlight.

Global

10th April, 2019 » Much ado about nothing?

The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession indicator that always enlivens markets. While statistically the curve is an excellent forecaster of downturns, there is much to suggest things might be a little different this time.

China

4th April, 2019 » The Iceman Cometh?

People are always keen to write off China. Its authoritarian regime has built up malinvestments and debt beyond that of any other emerging economy, both in nominal terms and as a share of GDP. Even its GDP is often deemed to be over-inflated. But we are not on the cusp of a collapse. For a start, China’s financial system still has relatively closed circuitry, with the money being owed mostly by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to state-owned banks, meaning relatively modest connectivity to the wider world.

Eurozone

8th March, 2019 » Contradictions

Faltering growth and undershooting inflation expose the contradictions of the ECB’s current policy approach. Despite Draghi’s insistence, they remain well…

Global

6th March, 2019 » Capital punishment?

Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has turned into a more prolonged slowdown, certainly in Europe and Asia.

There is an assumption that demography is a slow-burn theme that can be filed away for the long term. But working age populations are already shrinking in many of the major economies.

Spain

19th February, 2019 » Spanish f(ar)-right

The collapse of Spain’s centre-left government has sounded the alarm bells. The country will now go to the polls in April, its fourth election in eight years. However, this does not mean populist parties are about to take over.

Global

14th February, 2019 » Tight-anic

Despite positive noises on wages from both the Fed and the ECB there is little sign we’re returning to the…

Special Report: Umbrella Idea

11th January, 2019 » Special Report: Umbrella IdeaEnd of the ICE age

There have been various points of blame for weak auto sales. The most under-appreciated input has been technological innovation, as…

Global

18th December, 2018 » Star Wars

America’s trade conflict with China reflects two things. First, the angst of a declining US power. Second, the ego-centric conflict…

Eurozone

14th December, 2018 » Europe adrift

Europe is suffering from a noxious combination of slowing growth and rising political risk. It also has a central bank…

UK

16th November, 2018 » Mediocrity exposed

This is not a report that tries to divine its way through the UK’s shambolic political scene. Instead, it examines…

Italy

14th September, 2018 » Rejecting reality

Rising bond yields might have forced the populist Italian government to moderate its tone ahead of next year’s budget, but…

Special Report: Umbrella Idea

3rd August, 2018 » Special Report: Umbrella IdeaTechnology – saviour or curse?

It’s undeniable that we’re living in an epoch of technological transformation. And one that is unprecedented in history. With the…

Japan

17th July, 2018 » Behind the Shōji

The buoyant Japanese labour market is finally generating some wage pressure. But Japanese demographics have created a structural demand deficit…

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