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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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US

17th September, 2020 » Future nostalgia  NEW

The Fed’s new monetary policy framework looks aggressive in some ways. It allows the FOMC to pursue average inflation targeting…

Global

1st September, 2020 » Return to all that  NEW

And so the deckchairs are folded in the garden shed, the beach towels ranged and fragrant in the hotpress and…

Global

18th August, 2020 » Pause

Our currency convictions are 1) short USD/long EUR; 2) short BRL, TRY, BRL, INR, IDR) v long EUR; plus 3)…

China

23rd July, 2020 » No capital fright

Capital flight continues from China. This isn’t new and it’s really not a problem, despite the perception that this is…

Turkey

20th July, 2020 » Rinse, repeat

Turkey’s easy monetary policy stance and domestic credit boom is starting to feed back into higher inflation. But with the…

Global

9th June, 2020 » The hand of god

The financial crisis, subsequent Eurozone debt crisis and Japanese reflation (in name only) transformed the role of power money. Central…

Global

22nd May, 2020 » The bell tolls

The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…

Global

19th May, 2020 » The bore

In January, during Chinese New Year, I had started writing about Covid-19 — warning clients of its potential to destroy.…

Global

20th April, 2020 » The last light

It is striking how little is known, but how widespread is the conviction, that once the pandemic wanes things will…

Global

6th April, 2020 » War and pieces

War horse (30 March 2020) sketched the architecture of a war economy versus a pandemic economy. This note goes further.…

Global

30th March, 2020 » War horse

Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky…

Special Report: Commodities

9th March, 2020 » Special Report: CommoditiesA crude way to double down

We are shifting currency investments because of the collapse in the oil price which, coming on top of Covid-19, is…

Germany

7th February, 2020 » Thuringian tremors

Political and economic risks are rising in Germany and, with them, pressure on the CDU. This week’s fateful cooperation with…

Global

16th December, 2019 » Cold water

The removal of uncertainties is always good for a short-term market boost. But it’s often better to travel than arrive.…

Thailand

11th December, 2019 » A baht time?

Thailand’s currency is completely out of line with fundamentals. A large current account surplus has sustained it but that is…

Hong Kong

25th November, 2019 » Democratic tensions

The victory of pro-democracy candidates in the weekend’s Hong Kong (HK) district council elections creates another problem for US/China trade…

UK

4th November, 2019 » Beyond eternity

While some might view the latest ‘postponement’ of Brexit as another example of can kicking in reality, it materially changes…

US

17th October, 2019 » Warning signs

The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…

Global

26th August, 2019 » La Rentree

Nothing in recent events has mellowed our views on the risks facing the global economy. The China/US trade conflict is…

The Australian economy has had a great run, avoiding recession for almost three decades. Most macro indicators are in reasonable shape. But there are three risks looming. First, high levels of household debt and heavy exposure to residential housing put domestic demand under the spotlight.

Global

10th April, 2019 » Much ado about nothing?

The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession indicator that always enlivens markets. While statistically the curve is an excellent forecaster of downturns, there is much to suggest things might be a little different this time.

China

4th April, 2019 » The Iceman Cometh?

People are always keen to write off China. Its authoritarian regime has built up malinvestments and debt beyond that of any other emerging economy, both in nominal terms and as a share of GDP. Even its GDP is often deemed to be over-inflated. But we are not on the cusp of a collapse. For a start, China’s financial system still has relatively closed circuitry, with the money being owed mostly by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to state-owned banks, meaning relatively modest connectivity to the wider world.

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