Unlike most geopolitical phenomena, populism is not a high-impact low-probability event. It is hard to run your life (or portfolio)…
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The ECB has a fine line to tread, since its forward guidance is out of kilter with the slowdown in…
The markets have been given two adrenalin shots to boost the Santa Claus rally: Fed Chairman Powell’s statement that the…
The recent decline in UK house prices is principally function of Brexit-related uncertainty. You’d have to be mad to buy…
Global economic growth has peaked almost everywhere. This cancels most of our long-term fixed income shorts, with the exception of…
Globalisation was not a perfect process. While it hefted living standards emerging markets, the trade-off was a stagnation of incomes…
This is not a report that tries to divine its way through the UK’s shambolic political scene. Instead, it examines…
Despite Germany enjoying full employment, a budget surplus and generally solid economic performance, there is little faith in the grand…
We are going short the euro versus the Us dollar. And some investors may consider going long gold versus the…
The world is now a degree warmer on average than in pre-industrial times and at current linear (and thus possibly…
Millennials are a diverse bunch that share as many differences as they do similarities. Where comparisons are useful is in…
Bavaria goes to the polls next on Sunday (October 14th). Regional elections don’t usually matter much, but this one is…
Stability in markets is often self-reinforcing but as the cycle tops out we start to see divergences. We seem to…
Rising bond yields might have forced the populist Italian government to moderate its tone ahead of next year’s budget, but…
Sweden’s general election should allow the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats to take a further step forward. But the centrists will rally…
Turkey is bust and will get more so. However, with the risk of capital controls imminent, it is time to…
It’s undeniable that we’re living in an epoch of technological transformation. And one that is unprecedented in history. With the…
North Korea can go four ways from here. 1) Nothing changes. 2) Voluntary unification (German style). 3) Implosion. 4) Or…
Policy measures taken by the Chinese authorities show they are serious about combatting risks to growth. These were the consequence…
The buoyant Japanese labour market is finally generating some wage pressure. But Japanese demographics have created a structural demand deficit…
Europe’s debt crisis led to some meaningful banking sector reforms. Efforts to recapitalise and improve balance sheets by disposing of…
Prospects for a quiet summer look slim in Italy. Tensions between the coalition partners will rise as expensive election promises,…
The Trump protectionist threat is the most likely cause of the next financial rout. The rot will start in equity…
Prime Minister Theresa May has long insisted that the UK would leave both the Single Market and the Customs Union.…
China’s economic model is rebalancing towards domestic demand. While not without its risks, at the moment this shift is proceeding…
China recorded a rare current account deficit in the first quarter. This isn’t likely to mark the start of a…
Kim Jong Un has proven to be an adept diplomat, turning the risks of developing an operational nuclear deterrent into…
President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal was expected, but that doesn’t make it less of a gamble. The…
The reflation trade has taken on renewed urgency this year as the late-cycle fiscal stimulus delivered by the White House…
Democracy is under attack. This calls into question the global leadership of the world’s most significant rich economies. From within…
Protectionism and the collapse of the business model of soft-tech giants is a bigger threat to global equity markets than…
Over the next decade or so, indigenous working-age populations in many advanced economies will begin to shrink. At the same…
A trade war cannot be won by anyone. Of course, the exporting country loses from a trade war. But so…
While the approval of the German coalition deal is a positive step for European integration, the uncertainty thrown up by…
The tax reform bill and fiscally expansive budget will boost GDP in the shorter-run, but the changes don’t do much…
The Italian elections are unlikely to deliver a thumping victory to any party. That’ll leave a government with a weak…
To remain as German Chancellor for another term, Angela Merkel has had to make serious concessions. The most important of…
We believe that the major global determinants of secular inflation (globalisation, technology, demography) will continue to hold price growth down.…
A spike in market volatility isn’t surprising. But it’s not the start of a more pronounced meltdown. Markets will recover…
While Canada might not carry the mantle of the lucky country, there is much to like. Growth has come back,…
Our book Democrisis, foretold the atomisation of politics in the post-cold war period and the coming technological impact of the…
There seems to be almost universal acceptance that central banks have created a liquidity bubble. And the logic goes that,…
Iranian protests are unlikely to topple the regime. But popular discontent with the economy and endemic corruption will shift the…
The Catalonian election results won’t weigh on the euro or EU financial assets in the short term. Whether this holds…
Demography is perhaps the single most important investment theme over the next half century. Many of its implications will begin…
Globalisation has been under assault. The loss of blue collar jobs has provided a captive audience for the anti-trade narrative…
The evolution of German coalition discussions leaves us more optimistic on a pro-European outcome. While we don’t expect an immediate…
While the mania for bitcoin continues unabated, it’s the technology underpinning this innovation — blockchain — that is the real…
The surprise collapse of German coalition negotiations leaves Chancellor Merkel stranded. She is now faced with trying to forge ahead…
