China recorded a rare current account deficit in the first quarter. This isn’t likely to mark the start of a…
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Kim Jong Un has proven to be an adept diplomat, turning the risks of developing an operational nuclear deterrent into…
President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal was expected, but that doesn’t make it less of a gamble. The…
The reflation trade has taken on renewed urgency this year as the late-cycle fiscal stimulus delivered by the White House…
Democracy is under attack. This calls into question the global leadership of the world’s most significant rich economies. From within…
Protectionism and the collapse of the business model of soft-tech giants is a bigger threat to global equity markets than…
Over the next decade or so, indigenous working-age populations in many advanced economies will begin to shrink. At the same…
A trade war cannot be won by anyone. Of course, the exporting country loses from a trade war. But so…
While the approval of the German coalition deal is a positive step for European integration, the uncertainty thrown up by…
The tax reform bill and fiscally expansive budget will boost GDP in the shorter-run, but the changes don’t do much…
The Italian elections are unlikely to deliver a thumping victory to any party. That’ll leave a government with a weak…
To remain as German Chancellor for another term, Angela Merkel has had to make serious concessions. The most important of…
We believe that the major global determinants of secular inflation (globalisation, technology, demography) will continue to hold price growth down.…
A spike in market volatility isn’t surprising. But it’s not the start of a more pronounced meltdown. Markets will recover…
While Canada might not carry the mantle of the lucky country, there is much to like. Growth has come back,…
Our book Democrisis, foretold the atomisation of politics in the post-cold war period and the coming technological impact of the…
There seems to be almost universal acceptance that central banks have created a liquidity bubble. And the logic goes that,…
Iranian protests are unlikely to topple the regime. But popular discontent with the economy and endemic corruption will shift the…
The Catalonian election results won’t weigh on the euro or EU financial assets in the short term. Whether this holds…
Demography is perhaps the single most important investment theme over the next half century. Many of its implications will begin…
Globalisation has been under assault. The loss of blue collar jobs has provided a captive audience for the anti-trade narrative…
The evolution of German coalition discussions leaves us more optimistic on a pro-European outcome. While we don’t expect an immediate…
While the mania for bitcoin continues unabated, it’s the technology underpinning this innovation — blockchain — that is the real…
The surprise collapse of German coalition negotiations leaves Chancellor Merkel stranded. She is now faced with trying to forge ahead…
When we wrote Of rabbits, bankers and what matters, 19 October 2017 we spoke of the factors that would set…
Central bankers’ reluctance to address the failings of their quantitative macro models (while overlooking the qualitative forces that are affecting…
Ultimately a nuclear North Korea is not acceptable. In the absence of a diplomatic miracle, the US will have to…
Politics rarely defines market trends, but it does alter risks in the shorter term. There is a clutch present in…
The CDU’s share of the vote may have shrunk but it remains the dominant party in Germany. This leaves Merkel…
The news headlines on massively damaging hurricanes, floods and heat waves are almost daily. Extreme weather is now the norm.…
Europe is in the process of forging a new direction. This is a response to the realisation the European project…
Structural changes mean that inflation rates are likely to remain low. That makes it more challenging for central banks to…
Saudi Arabia has a brash young new crown prince who is directing economic and foreign policy. This will increase political…
There isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ model for populism. It’s hard to identify in advance why social pressures morph…
The US mainland is now potentially in range of North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal. Diplomacy is past its sell-by date,…
Nine years after the global financial crisis (GFC) most advanced economies have clambered above their pre-crisis peaks. But this disguises…
Novembers election of Donald Trump sparked the dollars last hurrah. Were now entering a weak dollar cycle. This is a…
Central banks have a good chance (80% or so) of controlling the reduction in their balance sheets and normalisation of…
Trump’s new foreign policy marks a seismic shift. It returns the US to its role as global policeman backed by…
The dollar’s multi-year bull run might last a couple more months but its fundamental underpinnings are weakening. President Trump’s unpredictability…
The trouble with President Trump is what he is. There is no need for a psychological portrait of the man.…
The reaction of financial markets to Trump’s election is explainable by expectations of tax cuts and rising fiscal spending. This…
Populism substitutes gut feel ignorance for rational policy. In the guise of President Trump, it heralds an age of insularity…
Inflation is coming back. Will it boost corporate profits and investment, relieving the consumer of the burden of driving global…
Clinton will win the presidency for two reasons. She provides a semblance of normality compared to the hot-headedness of Trump.…
Free capital, like free water, is never going to be used productively. So it should be no surprise that central…
We are sticking to our strategic short position for sterling versus the US dollar and revising our target down to…
It is time to take out insurance against a gradual ending of central bank largesse. Sovereign bond yield curve steepeners…
