The Fed raised the Federal Funds interest rate by 75bp to a target rate of 1.5-1.75%. This is a good…
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The ad-hoc ECB meeting on widening yield spreads posed many questions.
In the first round of the French parliamentary election President Macron’s coalition and the left’s grouping ended up neck and…
Our forecast is that the world will avoid outright recession (though the EU is prone to ‘Warcession’). There are three…
The world will continue to split along Cold War lines – economically, culturally, technologically and scientifically. Inflation and recession risks…
The Russian war in Ukraine will last years, not months. Eventually, Putin will bite the dust. But this could just…
The world economy is conflicted by variables that will slow growth and headline inflation. But not enough to make bonds…
By any measure, grain and oilseed supplies are going to be justifiably tight for at least another year, particularly if…
There are three spectres of recession stalking the globe. Fed tightening; Zero-Covid disruption; and the war in Ukraine. All three…
The dialogue about Ukraine is set to widen to include the issue of economic resources and how they will be…
We went short the renminbi (RMB) on 12 December 2021. At the time, the RMB traded at around USD6.35. For…
The shifting goals of war will not produce stability, reduced sanctions or Russian withdrawals. They will produce a long drawn-out…
The first round of the French presidential elections takes place on Sunday. Incumbent Macron will be the leader, with Marine…
Warcession is not like stagflation. This report analyses the difference. Warcession is most likely to hit the EU first and…
The discovery of Russian army atrocities in Ukraine lifts us to a new plane of war and for longer. We…
Diminishing the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency will be gradual. Autocracies will accelerate their efforts to escape…
There has been no shift in our view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine since April last year (see our…
While the EU Council of Ministers meeting is ongoing, what we know so far from the G7/NATO and EU response…
In our recent piece (New world (dis)order) we mapped a post-conflict global economy which had a bigger state sector, low…
The Fed delivered as expected and promised six 25bps hikes in the Fed Funds rate this year. There was only…
What will the post-conflict world look like? What lies beyond the immediate “Warcession” discussed yesterday? This short piece describes the…
The EU authorities are in denial. This is bad for equities, north-south EU bond spreads, high-yield bonds and the euro.…
Equity markets are likely to continue to go lower. The US dollar will be stronger. Commodity prices will stay high.…
China’s “twin sessions” of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference…
The Russians are in for a long war, whether they ultimately get Ukraine or not. Insurgency with western backing would…
One of the more interesting phenomena of our ‘inflationary world’ is the fact that market-priced inflation expectations remain relatively well…
There are no changes to our existing hedges. We remain long the US dollar, long energy and agricultural commodities plus…
The sanctions announced by the US and Europe are not the sort of killer apps that would stop the Russian…
Our Russia hedges (long energy, agricultural commodities and gold, short bonds, equities (EU focused etc.) have worked well. A market…
Mostly and most investors view geopolitical events as of little relevance to economies and markets. In the case (60% probability)…
Four things in case I forget… Russia, the structural demand shift to manufactured goods, synchronised monetary tightening and Covid. All…
It is increasingly clear that changes wrought by the pandemic will prove long-lasting. That applies to both the structure of…
We have cut our short euro versus long US dollar position. We remain short bonds across developed markets.
Tensions on the Ukrainian-Russian border might come to nothing during the Winter Olympics, but once that event is over it…
After a week and seven unsuccessful attempts to find common ground and elect a new President of the Republic to…
The UK has had a bad pandemic. The economy shrank more than other G7 members and the country has only…
More than 90% of the world’s transoceanic data traffic travels in cables at the bottom of the sea. Satellites carry…
President Biden has now offered a face-to-face summit with President Putin to discuss Russia’s security concerns. So, President Biden is…
Global assets remain highly correlated, but it seems we are on the cusp of a more significant divergence in monetary…
Japan remains an oddity. It has suffered from the pandemic but none of the residual problems seen elsewhere — specifically…
War in Ukraine is more than 50% probable in the next month. But the face-off with Russia is about far…
The Italian presidential election is looming and the current PM, Mario Draghi, is the leading contender. While his appointment to…
Two visions describe where we are. “The sun shone, having no alternative, on nothing new.” And “We are closed in,…
As I write on December 29, the answer is not clear.
This piece brings together information about Omicron and supply-side disruptions. It finds the two are inextricably linked. Covid will continue…
One of the best ways in quantum physics to explain a particle’s behaviour is to take a dice and spin…
With both the Fed and the ECB ending the year with tapering in mind, it might seem that the monetary…
Christmas mines images from childhood. There is one in my mind that is more like Chirico than Santa. The colours…
The big consensus new year forecasts are published: 61.3 pages each on average for the five that I have read.…
The B.1.1.529 virus has been designated a Covid-19 variant of concern with the name Omicron. Our investment take is that…
