Political and economic risks are rising in Germany and, with them, pressure on the CDU. This week’s fateful cooperation with…
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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
The likely economic and financial market damage caused by the Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is underestimated. We remain short Thai baht and…
Don’t look now, but actually Taiwan is doing very well out the US-China trade war. Despite that, all is not…
The removal of uncertainties is always good for a short-term market boost. But it’s often better to travel than arrive.…
Thailand’s currency is completely out of line with fundamentals. A large current account surplus has sustained it but that is…
The victory of pro-democracy candidates in the weekend’s Hong Kong (HK) district council elections creates another problem for US/China trade…
While some might view the latest ‘postponement’ of Brexit as another example of can kicking in reality, it materially changes…
This report discusses what strategy would look like if the US dollar were suddenly to lose its safe-haven status. This…
The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…
The trade negotiations in Washington are unlikely to shift the needle of global confidence or impending recession significantly. The Washington…
If debt were productive it would produce more than itself. This is what is needed to pay for it in…
Nothing in recent events has mellowed our views on the risks facing the global economy. The China/US trade conflict is…
The current boom in investment spending among the tech giants is now close to the entire Federal budget for education,…
The reality is that the US woke up too late to the risk of China usurping them as the key…
Based on how far the US term premium has fallen, to see any further meaningful decline in bond yields we’d need another downside macro shock.
The Australian economy has had a great run, avoiding recession for almost three decades. Most macro indicators are in reasonable shape. But there are three risks looming. First, high levels of household debt and heavy exposure to residential housing put domestic demand under the spotlight.
The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession indicator that always enlivens markets. While statistically the curve is an excellent forecaster of downturns, there is much to suggest things might be a little different this time.
People are always keen to write off China. Its authoritarian regime has built up malinvestments and debt beyond that of any other emerging economy, both in nominal terms and as a share of GDP. Even its GDP is often deemed to be over-inflated. But we are not on the cusp of a collapse. For a start, China’s financial system still has relatively closed circuitry, with the money being owed mostly by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to state-owned banks, meaning relatively modest connectivity to the wider world.
More than 12 years after the start of the global financial crisis (GFC) central banks do not feel able to…
Faltering growth and undershooting inflation expose the contradictions of the ECB’s current policy approach. Despite Draghi’s insistence, they remain well…
Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has turned into a more prolonged slowdown, certainly in Europe and Asia.
There is an assumption that demography is a slow-burn theme that can be filed away for the long term. But working age populations are already shrinking in many of the major economies.
The collapse of Spain’s centre-left government has sounded the alarm bells. The country will now go to the polls in April, its fourth election in eight years. However, this does not mean populist parties are about to take over.
Despite positive noises on wages from both the Fed and the ECB there is little sign we’re returning to the…
We’ve expected Sweden’s political and monetary policy shifts to give the Swedish krona (SEK) a boost. And it did for…
The Fed has shifted policy on the path for the Fed Funds rate and the normalisation of its balance sheet.…
US equities have hugely outperformed their international peers over the long haul and other US financial assets in the short…
Chinese data suggests the trade war is biting. This is focusing minds in Beijing, meaning some kind of deal between…
There have been various points of blame for weak auto sales. The most under-appreciated input has been technological innovation, as…
America’s trade conflict with China reflects two things. First, the angst of a declining US power. Second, the ego-centric conflict…
Europe is suffering from a noxious combination of slowing growth and rising political risk. It also has a central bank…
Unlike most geopolitical phenomena, populism is not a high-impact low-probability event. It is hard to run your life (or portfolio)…
The ECB has a fine line to tread, since its forward guidance is out of kilter with the slowdown in…
The markets have been given two adrenalin shots to boost the Santa Claus rally: Fed Chairman Powell’s statement that the…
The recent decline in UK house prices is principally function of Brexit-related uncertainty. You’d have to be mad to buy…
Global economic growth has peaked almost everywhere. This cancels most of our long-term fixed income shorts, with the exception of…
Globalisation was not a perfect process. While it hefted living standards emerging markets, the trade-off was a stagnation of incomes…
This is not a report that tries to divine its way through the UK’s shambolic political scene. Instead, it examines…
Despite Germany enjoying full employment, a budget surplus and generally solid economic performance, there is little faith in the grand…
We are going short the euro versus the Us dollar. And some investors may consider going long gold versus the…
The world is now a degree warmer on average than in pre-industrial times and at current linear (and thus possibly…
Millennials are a diverse bunch that share as many differences as they do similarities. Where comparisons are useful is in…
Bavaria goes to the polls next on Sunday (October 14th). Regional elections don’t usually matter much, but this one is…
Stability in markets is often self-reinforcing but as the cycle tops out we start to see divergences. We seem to…
Rising bond yields might have forced the populist Italian government to moderate its tone ahead of next year’s budget, but…
Sweden’s general election should allow the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats to take a further step forward. But the centrists will rally…
Turkey is bust and will get more so. However, with the risk of capital controls imminent, it is time to…
It’s undeniable that we’re living in an epoch of technological transformation. And one that is unprecedented in history. With the…
North Korea can go four ways from here. 1) Nothing changes. 2) Voluntary unification (German style). 3) Implosion. 4) Or…
Policy measures taken by the Chinese authorities show they are serious about combatting risks to growth. These were the consequence…
