The extensive support provided by monetary and fiscal policy marks this crisis as a very different one for the banks.…
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The investment message below is that we are long equities. Not forever. But for now. And we prefer cyclical sectors…
The vaccine news and the Biden presidency combined keep us positive on equities, negative on global bonds, neutral the euro…
Erdogan’s removal of another central bank governor and the resignation of his son-in-law from the finance ministry points to a…
With Biden finally over the line (see our report US election: sorting husks from chaff, 7 November 2020), we outline…
We are taking off our long EUR, short USD position that we have held since June. We expect Biden to…
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are a reality; the timeframe for adoption is the uncertainty. Central bank involvement is not…
A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some…
The public sector’s aggressive action prevented the Covid-crisis turning into another global financial crisis. But many of the remedies were…
Covid has caused plenty of economic pain across the world, but we have not seen much sign of specific Emerging…
We are waiting on the presidential election outturn to take a more positive stance on US financial assets, particularly equity…
Despite the bounce in the greenback over the past week, short US dollar and long euro and yen remain our…
Online product and service providers have been the main equity market winners so far this year. But the concentration of…
The results of the Italian regional elections and the approval of the electoral reform law by referendum last weekend should…
The Fed’s new monetary policy framework looks aggressive in some ways. It allows the FOMC to pursue average inflation targeting…
And so the deckchairs are folded in the garden shed, the beach towels ranged and fragrant in the hotpress and…
Our currency convictions are 1) short USD/long EUR; 2) short BRL, TRY, BRL, INR, IDR) v long EUR; plus 3)…
If you think of places as planets, Hong Kong is a very small planet indeed and China a big one…
We do have a V-shaped recovery. But there are two big “ifs”. What happens when the state bailouts end? And…
Capital flight continues from China. This isn’t new and it’s really not a problem, despite the perception that this is…
Turkey’s easy monetary policy stance and domestic credit boom is starting to feed back into higher inflation. But with the…
We do not think that China can win the Cold War with the United States. Last month we published a…
This report looks at where and how the economic recovery from Covid could be sustainable. Countries that will do better…
The pandemic might have shattered the economy and ushered in ever more aggressive interventionism from the monetary and fiscal authorities.…
It is something of a consensus view that equities are an inflation hedge. But this is only true if demand…
The financial crisis, subsequent Eurozone debt crisis and Japanese reflation (in name only) transformed the role of power money. Central…
The downturn in developed markets (DMs) will be savage, with no hint of the ‘V-shaped’ recoveries that were sold as…
The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…
In January, during Chinese New Year, I had started writing about Covid-19 — warning clients of its potential to destroy.…
A Hong Kong (HK) political crisis is brewing beyond Covid. There are two elements. First, Hong Kong is a perfect…
The measures being introduced by the US to control the export of technology to China have four qualities. They can…
The immediate hit from Covid-19 is to society and to economic welfare. A significant longer-term issue will be how this…
We have set out our store a long time ago as regards the post Covid-19 macro setting and asset allocation:…
It is striking how little is known, but how widespread is the conviction, that once the pandemic wanes things will…
The rates of Covid-19 new daily infections are starting to roll over. Over Easter globally there were around 70k new…
War horse (30 March 2020) sketched the architecture of a war economy versus a pandemic economy. This note goes further.…
Even before the Covid-19 crisis, about one quarter of US quoted corporations were cash flow negative. This is because they…
Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky…
If all country pandemics were the same then we’d have a good understanding as to how this current global crisis…
The economic shock from Covid-19 is being underestimated. This is natural when the immediate priority is safeguarding human life. This…
Having weighed all the evidence, our advice to clients is not to second-guess the pandemic until there is much clearer…
Covid-19 hits economic activity on a number of levels. This compounds its impact over both the short- and longer-term. It…
We are shifting currency investments because of the collapse in the oil price which, coming on top of Covid-19, is…
Markets are likely to remain volatile as the lag between actual COVID-19 infections and the reporting of cases continues to…
We have cut our long US dollar position versus the euro, taking us neutral. We expect oversold equity markets to…
Political and economic risks are rising in Germany and, with them, pressure on the CDU. This week’s fateful cooperation with…
The likely economic and financial market damage caused by the Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is underestimated. We remain short Thai baht and…
Don’t look now, but actually Taiwan is doing very well out the US-China trade war. Despite that, all is not…
The removal of uncertainties is always good for a short-term market boost. But it’s often better to travel than arrive.…
Thailand’s currency is completely out of line with fundamentals. A large current account surplus has sustained it but that is…
