The liberal democracies are not arming Ukraine to win this war outright. The most likely outcome is a long war…
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The latest planned shipment of weapons to Ukraine does not change the equation that we are not arming Kyiv to…
Our key positions to start 2023 are: Long JPY, oil and agro commodities. Short US treasuries and JGBs. Selective on…
It is unlikely this visit will deliver what is needed. The offensive weapons Ukraine needs to win this war are…
There are two dumb deals, but important ones: 1) the BoJ decision to raise the target band for JGB yields…
The Fed, the ECB, and the BoE all increased their policy interest rates by 50bp. That was as expected. Relative…
Wandering through Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, China, Iran, Russia, the EU and the future: reconstruction for Ukraine; Saudi-China alliance; China’s COVID…
The G7+Australia price cap on Russian oil shipments at $60/bbl is a joke. It leaves Russia with almost unchanged revenues.
The euro has bottomed. Our target is $1.12-1.15 next year. This is as much due to the US dollar peaking…
The coming meeting of the leaders of China and Saudi Arabia heralds the sort of alliance that will deepen world…
It was not a total copout, but nearly. The COP27 conference achieved one breakthrough: an agreement to set up a…
The COP27 climate conference in Egypt is the last chance saloon for governments and agents to get their act together…
The US mid-term elections are most decisive global election of the decade. What is at stake is a global system…
We are adding long oil to the portfolio again. This report explains why. Russia will disrupt the oil market rather…
The Fed will go on hiking policy rates through most of 2023. That maintains global financial market headwinds and ultimately…
The Russians have halted the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Shipment Agreement following the Ukrainian attack on the Russian Black Sea…
The ECB raised its policy rates by 75bp, but made no change to the reinvestment of bonds maturing on its…
Global central banks face risks in trying to shrink their balance sheets. This report looks at this issue in an…
Xi’s next period in office will be very difficult for the leadership: economic growth will be only 2-4% a year,…
The latest USDA world aggregate supply and demand estimates (WASDE) for grain suggest further upside in prices over the winter.…
Germany went off and did its own thing, rather than the EU thing, in its new gas and electricity “Third…
This is to summarise our main strategy positions.
Putin is a man down a hole who, instead of climbing out, just digs deeper. No more off ramps! De…
Our short sterling position is now closed. GBP has hit our USD1.05 target. Now it is about 3c above that…
Giorgia Meloni scored a spectacular electoral victory in Italy. Italians have the first directly elected government in a decade with…
The Japanese authorities have intervened to prop up the yen for the first time since 1998. This intervention may squeeze…
There are two kinds of inflation. One comes from imported inflation. The other happens when inflation spreads to domestic sectors.…
Following a surge in violent crime, Sweden has elected a new rightist government. This shift will impose stricter limits on…
Anything that is bad for Putin’s Russia is good for the rest of us. This is likely to be the…
This report is about reconciling the historical predictors of doom with the concept of what could go right. It introduces…
Germany’s SPD-Green-FDP coalition has announced a new support package for beleaguered households and SMEs struggling with surging energy prices. The…
It is unlikely the EU will run out of gas in winter. It means Putin’s stranglehold on EU energy is…
China’s debt problems persist and are increasingly evident in the housing market. While this is unlikely to lead to immediate…
Against the consensus, we reckon that the EU may well have enough gas supply over the coming winter and beyond…
China is currently de facto blockading Taiwan. Our reading is that the PLA announcement of further manoeuvres in Bohai and…
We no longer recommend being short Italian or other southern Eurozone government bonds.
The Hong Kong dollar peg value against the US dollar is now near its weakest point. This has led some…
Russia plans to cut gas supply to the EU through NordStream 1 (NS1) back to 20% tomorrow. This is sooner…
It is unlikely that the ECB’s new policy tool, TPI (or Transmission Protection Instrument), will change the fate of the…
Italy’s PM Mario Draghi is resigning after losing the support of parties in the governing coalition. This will hit Italian…
Political uncertainty in Italy is back on the agenda. This will weigh on Italian financial assets and the euro.
Russia has its finger on the trigger aimed at the economic heart of whomever takes measures against it – however…
The ECB, faced with any threat of EU fragmentation, has stated that it has the resources and can create the…
The EU Initiative on Gas Storage, published overnight, misses the point that the issue is not storage but where the…
The next big shock generated by Russia may be gas. It could come from Russia cutting deliveries to the EU…
Political positioning has already begun ahead of Italy’s parliamentary elections next Spring. After a long-running feud within Italy’s Five Star…
President Emmanuel Macron’s party has lost its majority in the French National Assembly. And the result matters.
The Fed raised the Federal Funds interest rate by 75bp to a target rate of 1.5-1.75%. This is a good…
The ad-hoc ECB meeting on widening yield spreads posed many questions.
In the first round of the French parliamentary election President Macron’s coalition and the left’s grouping ended up neck and…
