The ECB might not have changed policy rates or increased its QE programme, but the significance of yesterday’s policy tweaks…
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Germany’s Green party looks set to be the big winner of upcoming state elections. The outcome may also influence the…
Environmental degradation is difficult to stop because there is no upfront cost from delivering destruction. The short-term driver is always…
The Covid crisis forced European policy makers into providing unprecedented fiscal and monetary support. This is set to continue amid…
Policy normalisation is a great post-Covid challenge. It will be forced on policy makers by markets, rather than being an…
Economies will overheat. Worst in the US (but UK and Australia in tow). This will start a two year equity…
Australia has emerged as one of the more successful countries in fending off Covid. Geography played its part. But equally,…
Putting all my asset allocation ideas together is just that: herding cats. They do not hang together with the seamless…
With Draghi running the country, Italy will be led by a heavyweight. He is highly respected on the global scene…
We have been long copper this year, as the quick economic recovery in China boosted global demand, while the Covid…
The thought occurred to me that it is very odd the way Covid has been evolving. The news abounds about…
You may remember that a person from Porlock interrupted Coleridge’s composition of the oneiric poem Kubla Khan. My person from…
Equities are the most vulnerable asset class to vaccine wars. The euro is perhaps the most vulnerable rich-country currency. All…
Bitcoin and its ilk are loved and loathed. In many eyes these are fabricated assets and hold only fictional value.…
Germany’s CDU has a new leader. But the vexed question of who will become the centre-right’s candidate to succeed Angela…
Markets care about stimulus but not much about Covid. They look through the Covid data. But this is wrong. Covid…
The latest WASDE report by the US Department of Agriculture supports our long position in wheat. There is further upside…
We are looking to Italy to see the re-emergence of populism and a sovereign debt crisis which would hit the…
There will rarely be a year when macro events hold greater sway. Our macro outlook: US 10-year Treasury yields will…
This week kicks off a momentous political year in Germany, culminating in the federal election in September and subsequent retirement…
A short while ago Quantum Economics was written (15 December 2020). It sparked numerous conversations and comments from clients, commentators…
The Brexit deal is a major economic negative for the UK. The cost will become progressively apparent rather than result…
The extensive support provided by monetary and fiscal policy marks this crisis as a very different one for the banks.…
The investment message below is that we are long equities. Not forever. But for now. And we prefer cyclical sectors…
The vaccine news and the Biden presidency combined keep us positive on equities, negative on global bonds, neutral the euro…
Erdogan’s removal of another central bank governor and the resignation of his son-in-law from the finance ministry points to a…
With Biden finally over the line (see our report US election: sorting husks from chaff, 7 November 2020), we outline…
We are taking off our long EUR, short USD position that we have held since June. We expect Biden to…
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are a reality; the timeframe for adoption is the uncertainty. Central bank involvement is not…
A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some…
The public sector’s aggressive action prevented the Covid-crisis turning into another global financial crisis. But many of the remedies were…
Covid has caused plenty of economic pain across the world, but we have not seen much sign of specific Emerging…
We are waiting on the presidential election outturn to take a more positive stance on US financial assets, particularly equity…
Despite the bounce in the greenback over the past week, short US dollar and long euro and yen remain our…
Online product and service providers have been the main equity market winners so far this year. But the concentration of…
The results of the Italian regional elections and the approval of the electoral reform law by referendum last weekend should…
The Fed’s new monetary policy framework looks aggressive in some ways. It allows the FOMC to pursue average inflation targeting…
And so the deckchairs are folded in the garden shed, the beach towels ranged and fragrant in the hotpress and…
Our currency convictions are 1) short USD/long EUR; 2) short BRL, TRY, BRL, INR, IDR) v long EUR; plus 3)…
If you think of places as planets, Hong Kong is a very small planet indeed and China a big one…
We do have a V-shaped recovery. But there are two big “ifs”. What happens when the state bailouts end? And…
Capital flight continues from China. This isn’t new and it’s really not a problem, despite the perception that this is…
Turkey’s easy monetary policy stance and domestic credit boom is starting to feed back into higher inflation. But with the…
We do not think that China can win the Cold War with the United States. Last month we published a…
This report looks at where and how the economic recovery from Covid could be sustainable. Countries that will do better…
The pandemic might have shattered the economy and ushered in ever more aggressive interventionism from the monetary and fiscal authorities.…
It is something of a consensus view that equities are an inflation hedge. But this is only true if demand…
The financial crisis, subsequent Eurozone debt crisis and Japanese reflation (in name only) transformed the role of power money. Central…
The downturn in developed markets (DMs) will be savage, with no hint of the ‘V-shaped’ recoveries that were sold as…
The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…
