The thing you just can’t be neutral about is EU, Italian and Spanish restructuring plans. If these programmes succeed, we…
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The surge in US April inflation is not a one-off but reflects the rekindling of inflation. This has significant investment…
As vaccination rates in advanced nations move them closer to herd immunity and their economies fully reopen — at least…
We divide our long currency portfolio into two categories: the “Laggards” who should normalise policy but won’t (US dollar, British…
The German federal elections on 26 September are likely to bring the Greens to power. Contrary to common perception, this…
This summarises our strategic positions. Perhaps it could be more aptly named the ‘bare bones of it’. Because bearish I…
“Oh Wonder! How many goodly creatures are there here! How beauteous mankind is! O brave new world that has such…
This is the fourth thing (outlined in this week’s reports) that will shape our world … and of course investments.…
Four things (outlined in this week’s reports) will shape our world … and of course investments. We now head to…
The German Constitutional Court has rejected the application for an injunction to stop the German President from signing the draft…
Four things (outlined in this week’s reports) will shape our world … and of course investments. Here our viewpoint moves…
“Time present and time past Are both perhaps present in time future, And time future contained in time past.” T.…
The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) between the EU and China looks to be dead in the water. This will…
The EU’s Next Generation Fund (NGEU), a significant step in EU fiscal integration, is under threat from the German Constitutional…
People obsess about post-Covid debt. But the reality, as the pandemic begins to wane, is that private sector balance sheets…
Covid policy prescriptions have certainly held equity markets up. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the valuations the market has placed…
There is a problem that has been amplified by Covid-19. And it is one that is likely to prove longer-lasting…
The gap between high and low Covid-19 vaccination countries will be the main determinant of economic performance this year. But…
The CDU’s poor performance in last weekend’s state elections won’t trigger any immediate reckoning. But the problems still shine a…
The ECB might not have changed policy rates or increased its QE programme, but the significance of yesterday’s policy tweaks…
Germany’s Green party looks set to be the big winner of upcoming state elections. The outcome may also influence the…
Environmental degradation is difficult to stop because there is no upfront cost from delivering destruction. The short-term driver is always…
The Covid crisis forced European policy makers into providing unprecedented fiscal and monetary support. This is set to continue amid…
Policy normalisation is a great post-Covid challenge. It will be forced on policy makers by markets, rather than being an…
Economies will overheat. Worst in the US (but UK and Australia in tow). This will start a two year equity…
Australia has emerged as one of the more successful countries in fending off Covid. Geography played its part. But equally,…
Putting all my asset allocation ideas together is just that: herding cats. They do not hang together with the seamless…
With Draghi running the country, Italy will be led by a heavyweight. He is highly respected on the global scene…
We have been long copper this year, as the quick economic recovery in China boosted global demand, while the Covid…
The thought occurred to me that it is very odd the way Covid has been evolving. The news abounds about…
You may remember that a person from Porlock interrupted Coleridge’s composition of the oneiric poem Kubla Khan. My person from…
Equities are the most vulnerable asset class to vaccine wars. The euro is perhaps the most vulnerable rich-country currency. All…
Bitcoin and its ilk are loved and loathed. In many eyes these are fabricated assets and hold only fictional value.…
Germany’s CDU has a new leader. But the vexed question of who will become the centre-right’s candidate to succeed Angela…
Markets care about stimulus but not much about Covid. They look through the Covid data. But this is wrong. Covid…
The latest WASDE report by the US Department of Agriculture supports our long position in wheat. There is further upside…
We are looking to Italy to see the re-emergence of populism and a sovereign debt crisis which would hit the…
There will rarely be a year when macro events hold greater sway. Our macro outlook: US 10-year Treasury yields will…
This week kicks off a momentous political year in Germany, culminating in the federal election in September and subsequent retirement…
A short while ago Quantum Economics was written (15 December 2020). It sparked numerous conversations and comments from clients, commentators…
The Brexit deal is a major economic negative for the UK. The cost will become progressively apparent rather than result…
The extensive support provided by monetary and fiscal policy marks this crisis as a very different one for the banks.…
The investment message below is that we are long equities. Not forever. But for now. And we prefer cyclical sectors…
The vaccine news and the Biden presidency combined keep us positive on equities, negative on global bonds, neutral the euro…
Erdogan’s removal of another central bank governor and the resignation of his son-in-law from the finance ministry points to a…
With Biden finally over the line (see our report US election: sorting husks from chaff, 7 November 2020), we outline…
We are taking off our long EUR, short USD position that we have held since June. We expect Biden to…
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are a reality; the timeframe for adoption is the uncertainty. Central bank involvement is not…
A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some…
The public sector’s aggressive action prevented the Covid-crisis turning into another global financial crisis. But many of the remedies were…
