Populism substitutes gut feel ignorance for rational policy. In the guise of President Trump, it heralds an age of insularity…
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Inflation is coming back. Will it boost corporate profits and investment, relieving the consumer of the burden of driving global…
Clinton will win the presidency for two reasons. She provides a semblance of normality compared to the hot-headedness of Trump.…
Free capital, like free water, is never going to be used productively. So it should be no surprise that central…
We are sticking to our strategic short position for sterling versus the US dollar and revising our target down to…
It is time to take out insurance against a gradual ending of central bank largesse. Sovereign bond yield curve steepeners…
Robert Gordon’s gloomy hypothesis of perpetually slow economic growth looks credible at first glance, but on closer examination it is…
The global anger vote will have lasting effects on politics and, with it, the long-term economic outlook. It is reshaping…
The slow economic normalisation under way since the global financial crisis has been running hand in hand with another process.…
This is one of those moments in history when politics matter as much as economics for financial markets. The rise…
Although the polls continue to suggest the UK’s in/out referendum is too close to call, we maintain the view that…
The long US dollar trade has been a rather testing one so far this year. Weaker US growth and a…
Global equity markets are generally expensive. That’s because central bank largesse has inflated price (P). Meanwhile corporate profits (E) remain…
This paper discusses the fallout from a scenario called “stasis”. It would lead us to change many of our portfolio…
While central bankers sound dismissive when the question of helicopter money is raised, they were equally dismissive about NIRP. Deployment…
Low productivity growth has been a persistent feature since the Global Financial Crisis. Why? On balance our conclusion is that…
We are making two changes to our portfolio allocations. First, we are moving back to a short yen position. Second,…
The deterioration in equity markets this year should not come as a complete surprise, the problems are not new. We…
Disruptive technologies have always been the cause of economic strides. Manufacturing replaced the artisan. Electricity revolutionised industry. The train and…
The Fed’s hold is simply a postponement of the inevitable first hike, which is most probably in December. EM risks are…
Much has been written about the rise in inequality over the past three decades, the debate reaching its crescendo last…
Deflation is the villain that every major country’s central bank has in its sights. But deflation is not necessarily a…
The abandonment of the SNB’s currency peg versus the euro is a reminder of the deflationary forces stalking the global…
The decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to abolish the Swiss franc peg to the euro at 1.20 can…
Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer science fiction. AI will replace and improve on most, if not all, human productive…
Without immigration of skilled labour Germany’s economy will shrink 4.5% in the next two decades and social security payments will…
Investors are right to wonder whether a stagnating economy with price deflation, such as Japan experienced in the 1990s onwards,…
Growth in the global economy will initially be quite powerful over the first half of 2014, driven by the US,…
