Turkey’s easy monetary policy stance and domestic credit boom is starting to feed back into higher inflation. But with the…
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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
We do not think that China can win the Cold War with the United States. Last month we published a…
This report looks at where and how the economic recovery from Covid could be sustainable. Countries that will do better…
The pandemic might have shattered the economy and ushered in ever more aggressive interventionism from the monetary and fiscal authorities.…
It is something of a consensus view that equities are an inflation hedge. But this is only true if demand…
The financial crisis, subsequent Eurozone debt crisis and Japanese reflation (in name only) transformed the role of power money. Central…
The downturn in developed markets (DMs) will be savage, with no hint of the ‘V-shaped’ recoveries that were sold as…
The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…
In January, during Chinese New Year, I had started writing about Covid-19 — warning clients of its potential to destroy.…
A Hong Kong (HK) political crisis is brewing beyond Covid. There are two elements. First, Hong Kong is a perfect…
The measures being introduced by the US to control the export of technology to China have four qualities. They can…
The immediate hit from Covid-19 is to society and to economic welfare. A significant longer-term issue will be how this…
We have set out our store a long time ago as regards the post Covid-19 macro setting and asset allocation:…
It is striking how little is known, but how widespread is the conviction, that once the pandemic wanes things will…
The rates of Covid-19 new daily infections are starting to roll over. Over Easter globally there were around 70k new…
War horse (30 March 2020) sketched the architecture of a war economy versus a pandemic economy. This note goes further.…
Even before the Covid-19 crisis, about one quarter of US quoted corporations were cash flow negative. This is because they…
Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky…
If all country pandemics were the same then we’d have a good understanding as to how this current global crisis…
The economic shock from Covid-19 is being underestimated. This is natural when the immediate priority is safeguarding human life. This…
Having weighed all the evidence, our advice to clients is not to second-guess the pandemic until there is much clearer…
Covid-19 hits economic activity on a number of levels. This compounds its impact over both the short- and longer-term. It…
We are shifting currency investments because of the collapse in the oil price which, coming on top of Covid-19, is…
Markets are likely to remain volatile as the lag between actual COVID-19 infections and the reporting of cases continues to…
We have cut our long US dollar position versus the euro, taking us neutral. We expect oversold equity markets to…
Political and economic risks are rising in Germany and, with them, pressure on the CDU. This week’s fateful cooperation with…
The likely economic and financial market damage caused by the Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is underestimated. We remain short Thai baht and…
Don’t look now, but actually Taiwan is doing very well out the US-China trade war. Despite that, all is not…
The removal of uncertainties is always good for a short-term market boost. But it’s often better to travel than arrive.…
Thailand’s currency is completely out of line with fundamentals. A large current account surplus has sustained it but that is…
The victory of pro-democracy candidates in the weekend’s Hong Kong (HK) district council elections creates another problem for US/China trade…
While some might view the latest ‘postponement’ of Brexit as another example of can kicking in reality, it materially changes…
This report discusses what strategy would look like if the US dollar were suddenly to lose its safe-haven status. This…
The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…
The trade negotiations in Washington are unlikely to shift the needle of global confidence or impending recession significantly. The Washington…
If debt were productive it would produce more than itself. This is what is needed to pay for it in…
Nothing in recent events has mellowed our views on the risks facing the global economy. The China/US trade conflict is…
The current boom in investment spending among the tech giants is now close to the entire Federal budget for education,…
The reality is that the US woke up too late to the risk of China usurping them as the key…
Based on how far the US term premium has fallen, to see any further meaningful decline in bond yields we’d need another downside macro shock.
The Australian economy has had a great run, avoiding recession for almost three decades. Most macro indicators are in reasonable shape. But there are three risks looming. First, high levels of household debt and heavy exposure to residential housing put domestic demand under the spotlight.
The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession indicator that always enlivens markets. While statistically the curve is an excellent forecaster of downturns, there is much to suggest things might be a little different this time.
People are always keen to write off China. Its authoritarian regime has built up malinvestments and debt beyond that of any other emerging economy, both in nominal terms and as a share of GDP. Even its GDP is often deemed to be over-inflated. But we are not on the cusp of a collapse. For a start, China’s financial system still has relatively closed circuitry, with the money being owed mostly by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to state-owned banks, meaning relatively modest connectivity to the wider world.
More than 12 years after the start of the global financial crisis (GFC) central banks do not feel able to…
Faltering growth and undershooting inflation expose the contradictions of the ECB’s current policy approach. Despite Draghi’s insistence, they remain well…
Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has turned into a more prolonged slowdown, certainly in Europe and Asia.
There is an assumption that demography is a slow-burn theme that can be filed away for the long term. But working age populations are already shrinking in many of the major economies.
The collapse of Spain’s centre-left government has sounded the alarm bells. The country will now go to the polls in April, its fourth election in eight years. However, this does not mean populist parties are about to take over.
Despite positive noises on wages from both the Fed and the ECB there is little sign we’re returning to the…
We’ve expected Sweden’s political and monetary policy shifts to give the Swedish krona (SEK) a boost. And it did for…
