The US Federal Reserve held its policy rate unchanged. This is bullish for markets as the Fed appears more confident…
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The Fed did as expected and hiked 25bp. That means trouble later.
The strategic view of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse is that it will not become the trigger for a…
It is increasingly clear that changes wrought by the pandemic will prove long-lasting. That applies to both the structure of…
The unequal distribution of US household assets is a reality. The pandemic was never going to change that. But measures…
US growth should remain robust. While government transfers continue to be pared back, the resurgence of the service sector will…
The idea that the US housing market is nearing bubble territory is far removed from reality. Prices might be rising,…
The US election is over, bar the shouting (recounts and court cases). Unsurprisingly, Biden has won. But badly. His mandate…
It is hard to say much about the upcoming US elections. Biden is so bland as to be much like…
The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…
Trump’s ‘Phase 1’ trade deal isn’t the concrete base to build the 2020s on. It’s a short-term deal that fits…
Don’t look now, but actually Taiwan is doing very well out the US-China trade war. Despite that, all is not…
This report discusses what strategy would look like if the US dollar were suddenly to lose its safe-haven status. This…
The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…
Another ratchet up in the US-China trade war and the intensification of the Hong Kong protests mean that we would…
There have been a number of recent developments that impact our asset allocation. First, we are adding more euro shorts…
G20 bout resulted in no knock-out! We got a trade war truce, but we didn’t get any shift in the…
The most dangerous fights are the ones where both contenders have total confidence they will win. The US-China trade spat…
The breakdown of US/China trade talks and President Trump’s decision to add a further layer of tariff s on Chinese…
By a narrow probability, it is likely that the US-China trade talks can be saved. But only just. The complacency…
