Independent Strategy

Trump’s trade tantrum

The Trump protectionist threat is the most likely cause of the next financial rout. The rot will start in equity markets, with the US at the fore. Then it will spread. Bonds will not escape, with the US facing the reality that its insatiable appetite for foreign funding will have to happen at higher interest rates and after the dollar has fallen. This is, of course, bad for emerging market assets and currencies.

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