Independent Strategy

Trust me on the sunscreen

Hope, hype and then the reality is the best way to think about the IPCC report. Aside from some tougher language (as tough as scientists get anyway), the outcomes predicted were really available in the last report published back in 2013. And we think that there is too much optimism built into them. The best hope, as ever, lies with economics and the impact of falling costs that superior green technology has compared to old carbon-driven cogs, pistons and furnaces. The prognosis for that is very good; the bad news is the prognosis for the climate is very bad — your base case should be for global temperatures to peak 2.5-3.0C higher, not 0.1C above the 1.5C target. Anyone who looks at data can see that.

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