UK: Brexit – unpalatable options
Report Date: 7th July, 2016 There are five options for the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU once it has left. There is the EEA option as Norway has; Switzerland’s EFTA option; the simple Customs Union that Turkey has; a basic trade agreement on WTO rules; or finally a special ‘bespoke’ trade deal like Canada is trying to negotiate. None are very palatable for the UK, given that it is vulnerable to a loss of access for its financial services exports to the EU, which could hit growth and worsen the external accounts. We remain short sterling with a target of $1.20.
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