UK and Europe – many moveable parts

The risk that the UK may decide to leave the EU within the next few years has risen with the commitment of the current Conservative-led government, if re-elected, to hold a referendum on the UK’s EU membership in 2017. The outlook is further complicated by shifting political sands, which continue to push voters away from the two traditional ruling parties to smaller swing groups such as the Liberals in 2010, and more recently the SNP and UKIP. Uncertainty over EU membership leaves sterling and UK financial assets exposed, increasing the importance of the UK’s growth gap to the stagnating continent.

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