Independent Strategy

UK – timeline for Brexit

However you look at it, avoiding Brexit looks like an outlier scenario. So Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty should be submitted to the Europeans before the end of this year, after a few hoops have been jumped through. World growth was already weak and this Brexit uncertainty will dampen confidence further. We remain short the British pound and euro versus the US dollar. We maintain our longs at the long-end of the US Treasury curve and long gold should continue to do well. Global equity valuations were already stretched. We remain short the S&P500 and global equities.

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