Independent Strategy

US-China geopolitical confrontation – the ratchet effect

The measures being introduced by the US to control the export of technology to China have four qualities. They can be used by Trump to bash China in the lead up to the US Presidential elections, now that the economy and markets are unlikely to be as much help to him. They are bad for the technology sector globally, which is still the darling of equity market investors. They represent further significant damage to globalisation and a return to “national” economics — both being the enemies of profitability and productivity. They will accelerate China’s self-sufficiency economic policies and isolation from international trade.

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