Independent Strategy

What the big bank does not say

There are two key variables to consider when investing in Chinese assets. First, the change in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) policy, with its invigorated emphasis on national and international goals. Second, the inevitable decline in the economy’s expansion, to a 5-6% growth rate — a trend that was hidden by the saw tooth recovery from Covid that China experienced first. Together with the structural problems of over-leverage and malinvestment we’re very cautious about Chinese equities, neutral on the currency and debt.

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