What we are doing

It may be useful to set down our major recommendations and how they have changed recently. We have switched on the US dollar. It is likely the enormous deficits of the Biden administration will be financed by a lower value of the dollar and higher long-term interest rates. The US economy is growing at an unsustainable rate. This will get worse thanks to ongoing fiscal stimulus and the release of pent-up private sector savings. The supply-side cannot follow. The result with be inflation and higher interest rates. And this is not an exclusively US phenomenon. Most advanced economies look this way.

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